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Managing Energy Risk: An Integrated View on Power and Other Energy Markets by Gero Schindlmayr, Bernhard Graeber, Markus Burger

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1

Energy Markets

Worldwide energy consumption will continue to grow over the next decades. Depending on the economic growth scenario, the average annual growth rate of energy consumption is estimated between 1.5% and 2.6% (Energy Information Administration 2006) with significant differences among the countries. In the reference scenario of 2% worldwide growth rate, non-OECD Asia (including China and India) grows at a rate of 3.7% per year whereas the OECD countries grow only at a rate of 1% per year. The projections for the reference scenario are shown in Figure 1.1.

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Figure 1.1 World energy consumption outlook by regions (reference scenario). Source: Energy Information Administration (2006)

The main primary energy source worldwide is oil covering 39% of worldwide energy consumption (see Figure 1.2). Second are coal and natural gas each covering 24% of energy consumption. Nuclear energy (6%) and others (8%) have a much smaller share. To meet the growing worldwide demand for energy, there will be an increase in energy consumption from all primary energy sources (Figure 1.3). However, the growth rates for natural gas and coal are expected to be larger than for oil, such that in the year 2030 oil will have a reduced share of only 33%. The shares of coal and natural gas will increase to 27% and 26% respectively.

Figure 1.2 World primary energy sources outlook. Source: Energy Information ...

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