Understand the Limitations of Heuristics

Heuristics are common in everyday life. We use heuristics all the time for our decisions and judgments. Real-life choices are a bit like modifying legacy code: we have to make decisions based on incomplete information and uncertain outcomes. In both situations, we aim for solutions that we believe have a high probability of leading to desirable outcomes.

Heuristics by definition are imprecise. A common source of error is to substitute a difficult question for a simple one. Because the mental processes are unconscious, we’re not even aware that we answered the wrong question.

One example is availability bias: we base decisions on how easily examples come to mind. In a classic study by Paul Slovic in ...

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