You Should Test That: Conversion Optimization for More Leads, Sales and Profit or The Art and Science of Optimized Marketing

Chapter 12

Analyze Your Test Results

It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories, instead of theories to suit facts.

—Sherlock Holmes

In 2005, the people of Italy were presented with a unique statistics opportunity. The number 53 had not been drawn in the national lottery for the preceding two years. This became the talk of the country, with many strategizing the best way to take advantage of it. It became clear to many people that 53 had an increasing chance of being drawn as each week passed.

Many Italians bet huge sums on the number 53. As The Guardian reported:

In a frenzy that even lottery-mad Italy has rarely seen, some 53 addicts ran up debts, went bankrupt, and lost their ...