CHAPTER 8
When Are Crowds Wise?
We have noted that on many questions, the average or majority view of group members turns out to be stunningly accurate. One reason is that by polling all members and by avoiding social influences, groups make very efficient use of information. And if the groups are diverse and the judgments are independent, there is a lot of information to aggregate.
Imagine that a company is attempting to project its sales for certain products in the following year; maybe the company needs an accurate projection to know how much to spend on advertising and promotion. Might it do best to poll its salespeople and trust the average number?1 Or suppose that a public official is deciding on whether to embark on a new program in the ...
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