HIGH CONSEQUENCE THREATS: NUCLEAR

CALVIN SHIPBAUGH

Arlington, Virginia

MICHAEL J. FRANKEL

EMP Commission, Washington, D.C.

1 INTRODUCTION

World War II taught the world to measure destructive power by a new metric. Fission weapons, which “split” atoms of uranium or plutonium and release a portion of their binding energy, are measured by their yield in terms of the number of kilotons (kt) of trinitrotoluene (TNT) equivalent to the total energy released. The first fission weapons that were produced in 1945 had yields in the neighborhood of 15–20 kt [1]. This approximate magnitude may crudely be assumed to represent early design attempts at producing nuclear explosions, although the yield of the first French test was reportedly several times greater [2].1 Lower yields can cause large scale devastation to an urban area. North Korea is the most recent nation to conduct a nuclear test. The yield was very low, and is reported to be less than 1 kt [3]. This yield stands in contrast to prior historical observations of what might have been expected for a first explosion, and illustrates that surprises regarding conventional wisdom on nuclear issues have appeared in recent times.

Thermonuclear weapons, which release excess binding mass energy when hydrogen atoms “fuse”, can have yields much higher than those of the most powerful fission weapons. The largest ever tested had a yield of approximately 50 Mt [4], which is more than three thousand times the yield of the fission bomb dropped on ...

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