FOREWORD
Know Where to Look
Humility is the first requirement of successful investing. We have to realize that we don’t know what is going on . . . and that we certainly can’t predict the future.
That means we have to find investment positions that work out even when they are based on absolute uncertainty and near complete ignorance.
Richard Russell tells us that in the film business they say that “nobody knows anything.” I guess they are always surprised in Hollywood by which films are box-office successes and which aren’t. Sometimes, they bet millions on a film with high expectations, only to see it flop at the box office. Then, they are surprised again when a film that they barely funded at all becomes a runaway success. Being an old hand in the movie business doesn’t mean you will pick a blockbuster every time, but at least you know where to look to find them. Then, all they can do is to take educated guesses, while recognizing that they will probably be surprised.
Karim can certainly take educated guesses, too. He’s been educated by roaming the world. He was born in Africa, studied in England and Canada, lives in Florida, and travels frequently. But there’s more to this book than a series of educated guesses. There’s also a very big idea. And the only thing that bothers me about the idea is that it is too obvious. Where’s the surprise, I ask myself?
The idea is simple. The developed world is growing slowly, if at all. The emerging world—which includes all sorts of countries ...
