Conclusion

The question to which this book attempts to provide an answer is: “what can we do to recognize and exploit weak signals in support of strategic decision-making?” The verb “to do” is the operative word, as the purpose of this book is to provide the reader with “actionable knowledge”, that is, usable for action.

Chapter 1 presented the concepts that are useful for understanding the core position of the concept of a “weak signal” in the strategic decision-making process. The latter pertains to a typically distant time horizon, from a few months to several years, depending on the circumstances. Consequently, decision making requires the anticipation of possible changes that will affect the enterprise’s environment and the behaviors of the relevant agents populating it.

Anticipation” is also a core concept in this book. It should not be confused with the concept of “forecasting”. The techniques used for forecasting may even prove entirely unsuitable when the enterprise’s relevant environment changes in a fast and discontinuous fashion. In that case, the enterprise’s problem is to illuminate what is liable to spring up in front of it, beyond its control, and not what it would wish to happen if the future was the continuation of the past.

The need is more about having radar than having a rear-view mirror. As it happens, the “weak signal” concept originates in the very radar metaphor proposed by I. Ansoff. The concepts that are useful in the remainder of this book were presented ...

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