Weak Signals for Strategic Intelligence: Anticipation Tool for Managers

Introduction

Why take an interest in weak signals? Weak signals are a means of helping managers of businesses (or other organizations) anticipate, in order to make strategic decisions in the context of a turbulent environment that requires them to “see things coming early enough”. Numerous recent examples in the world of industry and finance, as well as in the public sector, have shown that this ambitious objective is more pressing than ever, given the characteristics of the economic, technological, social, and political environment. The central concept is that of a “weak signal”, the first concrete example of which is provided at the very beginning of this book.

How should we go about it? A concept is not sufficient to act; it is not operational. This book chiefly proposes actionable knowledge, that is, a method and some tools to search for, identify, and interpret weak signals. These were gradually constructed within the scientific context of CNRS and university research. They have been applied and validated in the field on numerous occasions.

NOTE.– The phrase “weak signal” has been retained for historical reasons; we are actually dealing with early warning signals, harbingers of changes that matter to the decision-maker.

I.1. Introductory example: a surprising encounter on the corner of an alley: Tata

The following is narrated by A, a sales engineer employed by the German car manufacturer X, who is passing through Cuneo (Italy).

Cuneo is a city in Piedmont of which few foreigners ...