Preface
The aim of this book is to critically present the state of knowledge on the treatment of uncertainties in risk assessment for practical decision-making situations concerning high-consequence technologies, for example, nuclear, oil and gas, transport, and so on, and the methods for the representation and characterization of such uncertainties. For more than 30 years, probabilistic frameworks and methods have been used as the basis for risk assessment and uncertainty analysis, but there is a growing concern, partly motivated by newly emerging risks like those related to security, that extensions and advancements are needed to effectively treat the different sources of uncertainty and related forms of information. Alternative approaches for representing uncertainty have been proposed, for example, those based on interval probability, possibility, and evidence theory. It is argued that these approaches provide a more adequate treatment of uncertainty in situations of poor knowledge of the phenomena and scenarios studied in the risk assessment. However, many questions concerning the foundations of these approaches and their use remain unanswered.
In this book, we present a critical review and discussion of methods for the representation and characterization of the uncertainties in risk assessment. Using examples, we demonstrate the applicability of the various methods and point to their strengths and weaknesses in relation to the situation addressed. Today, no authoritative ...
