Uncertainty in Risk Assessment: The Representation and Treatment of Uncertainties by Probabilistic and Non-Probabilistic Methods

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Uncertainty Representation and Propagation in the Evaluation of the Consequences of Industrial Activity

In this chapter we consider the problem of uncertainty representation and propagation in the analysis of the consequences of undesirable events. The application is in part based on Ripamonti et al. (2012) and Ripamonti et al. (2013).

11.1 Evaluation of the Consequences of Undesirable Events

One of the fundamental questions of any risk analysis concerns the evaluation of the consequences of undesirable events associated with the project or activity under investigation. This requires the identification, description, and assessment of all direct and indirect effects, such as those on human beings, fauna and flora, soil, water, air, climate, landscape, material assets.

In this respect, the current European Union regulations require to provide an Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) for all projects which are likely to have a significant impact on the environment. In this chapter, we consider a new facility responsible for the atmospheric dispersion of pollutants. For this kind of project, an EIA consists of the following three main steps:

1. Characterization of the source: that is, the estimation of the atmospheric emissions resulting from the operation of the plant, in terms of nature and quantities of pollutants.

2. Estimation of the atmospheric pollutant concentration levels in the area close to the new installation using proper atmospheric dispersion models.

3. Assessment ...