Decide Now
When you really believethat trading is simply aprobability game, conceptslike right and wrong orwin and lose no longer havethe same significance.1
Even if you knew the results of 10,000 roulette spins, what materials the roulette wheel was made of, and whatever hundred other pieces of information you could dream up as possibly being useful, you still would not know what really mattered: where the ball will land next.2
Similarly, flip a coin 10,000 times. What are the odds it will land on heads on the 10,001st flip? The odds are exactly 50 percent. Do you actually need to flip the coin 10,000 times to prove those odds?
If you put trend following into a baseball analogy you would ask: Do you want to play ball or do you not want to play ...
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