Zero-Sum
The new normalis alwaysthe old always.
In a zero-sum game, someone can win only if somebody else loses.1
On any given market transaction, the chance of you winning or losing may be near even, but in the long run, you will only profit from trading because you have some persistent advantage (read: mathematical edge) that allows you to win slightly more often than losing.2
If you have ever played poker or studied edges in gambling, the words ring true: To trade profitably in the long run, you will know your edge, you will know when it exists, and you will exploit it when you can. If you have no edge, you can’t trade for profit. If you know you have no edge, but you are trading for other reasons, you will lose.3
The players in markets who ...
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