First Principles

This book is designed to help investors understand the economic and political forces that drive financial markets and to invest alongside those forces instead of against them. It also provides a blunt assessment of the limitations that most private investors face. Understanding these limitations and being able to manage risk are as important as choosing the right investments.

The following basic principles are central to the theme of this book:

• Financial markets, and stock markets in particular, always move in the direction that will do the most damage to the most investors. There are valid mathematical reasons underlying this assertion. In the most basic terms, when a large number of investors are on one side of the market ...

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