Bottom pickers versus trend followers
Some traders say they are able to pick tops and bottoms with some accuracy, and there are certain indicators (the RSI, for example) and various patterns (the key reversal, or engulfing lines in candlestick charting) that are designed to do just that. No doubt that the trader who can pick tops and bottoms with any degree of success will make the most money; however, I've found in practice that this is a very (repeat very) difficult thing to do over time. Anyone who trades long enough might be lucky and catch a major top or bottom. I can remember two cases in my career (in more than thousands of trades) in which I've been lucky enough to catch one: one in soybeans and one in copper. I'm not talking about a ...
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