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Trade Stocks and Commodities with the Insiders: Secrets of the COT Report

Book Description

"The way that Big Money got to be Big Money was by also being the 'Smart Money', and so it is worth paying attention to how the Big Money traders behave. That's the essence of what Larry Williams has to teach us in this book. And it's not just what the Smart Money says or thinks, but how they behave in terms of their trading that we should pay attention to. Larry shows us how to listen to that message."

Tom McClellan, Editor of The McClellan Market Report

"Finally, an insider's take on what really goes on behind the scenes in commodity trading. Larry writes his view of trading, as only he knows it, from his twenty-five years of experience."

James Altucher, author of Trade Like a Hedge Fund

Successful trader Larry Williams reveals industry secrets that help investors and traders successfully invest and trade side-by-side with the largest commercial interests in the world. You'll be introduced to the COT (Commitment of Traders) report, the best resource for achieving trading success, learn exactly what the information it contains means, and plan for maximizing profits by acting on reported actions.

Table of Contents

  1. Title Page
  2. Copyright Page
  3. Introduction
    1. FIRST FALLACY—“THESE GUYS KNOW SOMETHING”
    2. SECOND FALLACY—“IF THEY KNEW SOMETHING, THEY’D TELL YOU”
    3. MY WAKE-UP CALL
    4. THE SUPERPOWERS
    5. HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE ON COMMODITY AND FUTURES TRADING
    6. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
  4. CHAPTER 1 - Meet Your New Investment Partner and Adviser
    1. EVOLVING MISSION AND RESPONSIBILITIES
    2. HOW THE CFTC IS ORGANIZED
    3. WHO OUR BUDDIES ARE
  5. CHAPTER 2 - Watching the Commercials
    1. OUR WORK HAS JUST BEGUN
  6. CHAPTER 3 - Understanding the Commercials
    1. WHEAT 1992-1998
    2. GOLD 1999-2004
    3. COFFEE 1987-1993
    4. AND A LESSON TO RELEARN WITH A VIEW OF THE STOCK MARKET
    5. LESSON ONE IN USING THE COMMERCIAL DATA
    6. BRITISH POUND AND EXCESSIVE BUYING/SELLING
  7. CHAPTER 4 - The COT Index
    1. SO MUCH FOR THEORY
    2. A COMMERCIALS’ VIEW OF THE BRITISH POUND
    3. BULLISH ON CRUDE OIL
    4. THE SILVER BULLS AND THE COT
  8. CHAPTER 5 - For Every Insider There Is an Outsider
    1. LARGEST NET LONG POSITION
    2. SMALLEST NET LONG POSITION
    3. BEATING THE MARKET WITH THE BRITISH POUND
    4. FIRST RULE FOR THE PUBLIC INDEX
    5. SECOND RULE FOR THE PUBLIC INDEX
    6. GOLD DOES NOT ALWAYS GLITTER
    7. SOYBEAN SOLILOQUY
    8. USING THE INDEX, NOT JUST THE NET LONG POSITION
    9. BULLISH ON BONDS WHEN THE PUBLIC GETS BEARISH
  9. CHAPTER 6 - Large Traders ... Not Quite As Good As You Think
    1. BETTER ON BONDS?
    2. BONDS AND GOLD ARE SURE NOT COWS
    3. HOW DO THEY STAY LARGE TRADERS?
    4. UNDERSTANDING THE COT REPORT
    5. HOW THE FUNDS TRADE—X MARKS THE SPOT
    6. THE INDEX APPROACH TO LOOKING AT THE LARGE TRADERS
  10. CHAPTER 7 - The Facts on Volume
    1. THE OTHER SIDE OF THE COIN
    2. ONE DAY MATTERS?
    3. THERE IS ANOTHER WAY TO LOOK AT THIS RELATIONSHIP
    4. ANOTHER LOOK AT THAT TWO-SIDED COIN
    5. ONE LAST LOOK
    6. A LONGER-TERM VIEW OF VOLUME
    7. CONFESSION TIME
    8. SUMMATION
  11. CHAPTER 8 - The Breakthrough
    1. A KEY POINT ON OPEN INTEREST
    2. OPEN INTEREST AS A TIMING OR ENTRY TOOL
    3. MY OPEN INTEREST INDICATOR
    4. SELLS IN SILVER
    5. BUYING AND SELLING
  12. CHAPTER 9 - Opening Up on Open Interest
    1. OPEN INTEREST DOWN, PRICE DOWN CAN BE BULLISH
    2. SOME REAL TRADES
  13. CHAPTER 10 - A Unified Theory of COT Data
    1. A NEW INDICATOR—COMMERCIALS VERSUS TOTAL OPEN INTEREST
    2. CALLING THE LOWS
    3. THE MORAL OF THE STORY
    4. PIECES OF THE PUZZLE
    5. AN ANALYSIS OF SILVER
    6. GOLD, THE PROS, AND THE COMMERCIALS
    7. COMMERCIALS AND A LOOK AT SHORT-TERM TRADING
    8. THE MARKET—IT’S NOT A FLIP OF A COIN
    9. PATTERNS TO TRADING PROFITS OR RANDOMNESS?
    10. LOOKING AT LOSSES
    11. CALLING UPON THE COMMERCIALS
    12. SPLASHING ICE WATER ON THE PROFESSORS
    13. CONFESSION TIME
    14. THE TOUGHEST PART OF TRADING
    15. MORE ON THE MIND-SET OF A TRADER
  14. CHAPTER 11 - A New Twist on the Commercials
  15. CHAPTER 12 - Pointers and Thoughts on Trading
    1. THE ART OF USING STOPS
    2. THIS IS NOT A BLACK-AND-WHITE BUSINESS
    3. KNOW WHEN TO HOLD ’EM, KNOW WHEN TO FOLD ’EM
    4. THE ABSOLUTE TRUTH OF INVESTMENTS
    5. A GOOD WORD ON BAD HABITS
  16. CHAPTER 13 - The One-Minute Commodity Trader
    1. TO MARKET, TO MARKET, TO CATCH A FAT PIG
    2. NOW ON THE BUY SIDE
    3. A ONE-MINUTE WONDER?
    4. ALL YOU WANTED TO KNOW ABOUT GOLD
    5. THOUGHTS IN A NEVER-ENDING BATTLE
  17. CHAPTER 14 - Charts
    1. IT’S ALL ABOUT TIME
    2. PROS AND CONS OF CHARTS
    3. OPEN, HIGH, LOW, AND CLOSE CHARTS
    4. CANDLESTICK CHARTS
    5. CLOSING-ONLY PRICE CHARTS
    6. MARKET PROFILE CHARTS
    7. POINT-AND-FIGURE CHARTS
    8. KAGI BARS
    9. RENKO CHARTS
    10. MORE CHART JARGON: MOVING AVERAGES
    11. DON’T PUT YOUR CHARTS BEFORE THE HORSE
    12. CHART PATTERNS AND SUCH
    13. SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE
    14. THE FIB OF FIBONACCI
    15. DON’T MISUNDERSTAND ME ON CHARTS
  18. CHAPTER 15 - Putting Theory to Work
    1. ONE MORE STEP TO MASTER
    2. A DIFFERENT VIEW OF THE SAME PROBLEM
  19. Index