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The Trader's Guide to the Euro Area: Economic Indicators, the ECB and the Euro Crisis by David J. Powell

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Chapter 3

Coincident Indicators

PMI Surveys

The purchasing manager indices are based on surveys conducted by Markit Economics, a London-based data provider. They fall in between the categories of coincident and leading indicators. They are the timeliest indicators of the present state of the economy and among the first monthly economic indicators released. This means that they report on current – not future – economic performance with a large publishing lead, though some components have leading qualities.

The PMI surveys show a strong relationship with economic activity (Figure 3.1). For example, the correlation between the quarterly average of the euro-area composite PMI survey and quarter-over-quarter GDP growth from the third quarter of 2005 ...

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