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The Trader's Guide to the Euro Area: Economic Indicators, the ECB and the Euro Crisis

Book Description

The euro area remains in a state of flux and appears to be unsustainable in its present form. The outcome of the crisis may be unknown for years and a judgement on the project's success or failure may be out of reach for decades.

In the meantime, analysts, portfolio managers and traders will still have daily, weekly, quarterly and annual benchmarks. They will have to analyze economic developments in the euro area and their impacts on financial assets. The objective of this book is to provide a framework for that analysis that is comprehensible to most financial market participants.

The book begins with a focus on coincident and leading economic indicators for the euro area. The following section looks at euro-area institutions. The next chapter focuses on the euro crisis. It attempts to provide an explanation of its origins and a glimpse of the potential outcomes. In addition, the tools needed to analyze the crisis as it evolves are presented. The last sections provide information unique to the economies of Germany, France, the U.K., Switzerland, Sweden and Norway.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Contents
  3. Title
  4. Copyright
  5. Acknowledgements
  6. Chapter 1: Introduction
  7. Chapter 2: Gross Domestic Product
    1. The Expenditure Approach
    2. The Output Method
    3. The Income Method
    4. GNP vs. GDP
    5. Release Schedule
    6. Trend Growth
    7. The Business Cycle
    8. Monetary Conditions Index
    9. Effects of Monetary Policy on GDP
    10. Effects of the Exchange Rate on GDP
    11. Exchange-Rate Deflators
  8. Chapter 3: Coincident Indicators
    1. PMI Surveys
    2. Industrial Production
  9. Chapter 4: Leading Indicators
    1. Financial Conditions Index
    2. The U.S. Business Cycle
    3. ZEW Survey
    4. Ifo Survey
    5. M1 Money Supply Growth
  10. Chapter 5: Inflation Measures
    1. Consumer Price Index
    2. Producer Price Index
    3. Labor Costs
    4. Money Supply
    5. Inflation Expectations
  11. Chapter 6: The European Central Bank
    1. Traffic Light System
    2. Mandate
    3. Two-Pillar Strategy
    4. Monetary Policy Implementation
    5. Intervention in the Currency Markets
    6. Taylor Rule
  12. Chapter 7: Other Institutions
    1. Council of the European Union
    2. European Parliament
    3. European Commission
    4. Ecofin
    5. Eurogroup
    6. European Council
  13. Chapter 8: Euro Crisis
    1. Origins
    2. Optimal Currency Area Theory
    3. Fiscal Consolidation
    4. Quantitative and Qualitative Easing
    5. Government Bond Purchases
    6. Measures of National Solvency
    7. Target2 Balances
    8. Resolution
    9. Departure from the Euro Area
    10. Tools for Analyzing Debt Sustainability
  14. Chapter 9: Germany
    1. Labor Market
    2. Political Institutions
    3. Political Parties
  15. Chapter 10: France
  16. Chapter 11: United Kingdom
    1. The Bank of England
    2. Quantitative Easing
    3. GDP
    4. Inflation Measures
    5. House Prices
    6. Political Institutions
  17. Chapter 12: Switzerland
    1. The Swiss National Bank
    2. KOF Leading Indicator
  18. Chapter 13: Sweden
  19. Chapter 14: Norway
  20. Bibliography
  21. Index