CHAPTER 11
THE ART OF GOOD GUESSWORK

IN MICHAEL LEWIS'S BOOK Moneyball, there is a scene in which the scouts and front office executives of the Oakland A's gather to determine which players to select in the 2002 draft. The scouts are ex-players who have been around the game their whole lives. They rely on their experience and their senses to tell them which players will succeed. In many cases they are spot on. But they also fall prey to biases. The executives relied more heavily on the use of statistics to assess the players. The statistics don't care what the player looks like. Billy Beane, the general manager, was fond of saying “we're not selling jeans here.” They care only about his performance. While dramatized by Lewis, the point was that ...

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