CHAPTER 9
DEALING WITH LUCK

SPAIN HAS HAD A NATIONAL LOTTERY since 1763. The most coveted prizes are awarded in the days before Christmas. The first prize, known as El Gordo (“the fat one”), paid out €4 million in 2011. In the mid-1970s, a man hunted for a lottery ticket with the last two digits ending in 48. He found a ticket, bought it, and then won the lottery. When asked why he was so intent on finding that number, he replied, “I dreamed of the number 7 for seven straight nights. And 7 times 7 is 48.”1

This chapter is about coping with luck. The first approach deals with reducing the advantage of a skilled opponent if you are the underdog and improving your advantage if you are the favorite. The second approach involves reducing the influence ...

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