THE SKELETONS IN CHINA’S MONTHLY DATA CLOSET

Thomas Orlik

China’s economic data moves the markets. The monthly release of data on industrial value-added, fixed-asset investment (FAI), retail sales and consumer prices by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) is eagerly awaited by investors as the most complete and reliable guide to the current state of the Chinese economy. In the run up to the release, the markets and the press are awash with rumors and speculation. Analysts compete to make the most accurate predictions, drawing on a blend of sophisticated econometrics, information from inside sources, and crystal ball-gazing to make their forecasts. Major investment funds utilize automatic systems that trade billions of dollars instantaneously ...