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The Secrets of Economic Indicators: Hidden Clues to Future Economic Trends and Investment Opportunities

Book Description

Every day, stocks, bonds, and currencies bounce wildly in response to new economic indicators. Money managers obsess over those statistics, because they provide crucial clues about the future of the economy and the financial markets.

Now you can use these indicators to make smarter investment decisions, just like the professionals do.You don't need an economics degree, or a CPA... just this easy-to-use book.

Former TIME Magazine senior economics reporter Bernard Baumohl has done the impossible: he's made economic indicators fascinating.

Using real-world examples and stories,Baumohl illuminates every U.S. and foreign indicator that matters.Where to find them.What they look like. What the insiders know about their track records. And exactly how to interpret them.

Whether you're an investor,broker, portfolio manager, researcher, journalist,or student, you'll find this book indispensable.Nobody can predict the future with certainty. But The Secrets of Economic Indicators will get you as close as humanly possible.

What the numbers really mean... stocks, bonds, rates, currencies, and you

Ahead of the curve: spotting turning points

Calling recessions and recoveries in time to profit from them

Leading indicators: where's the economy really heading

Decoding initial unemployment claims, housing starts, the yield curve, and other predictors

Beyond the borders

Why foreign indicators are increasingly important—and how to use them

Making sense of indicators in conflict

What to do when the numbers disagree

Finding the data

Free web resources for the latest economic data


"This is the most up-to-date guide to economic indicators and their importance to financial markets in print. For anyone trying to follow the economic data, this should be next to your computer so that you can understand and find the data on the Internet."

David Wyss, Chief Economist, Standard and Poor's

"I find Baumohl's writing fascinating. Just about anyone who's serious about understanding which way the economy is headed will want to read this book. It could be a classic."

Harry Domash, Columnist for MSN Money and Publisher, Winning Investing Newsletter

"Every business person or investor should keep a copy of Baumohl's book close-at-hand. It is great, at long last, to have someone who has eliminated what may have been so perplexing to so many and to have done so with such remarkable clarity."

Hugh Johnson, Chief Investment Officer, First Albany

"Bernie Baumohl has written a "must read" educational and reference book that every individual investor will find indispensable for watching, monitoring, and interpreting the markets."

Allen Sinai, President and Chief Global Economist, Decision Economics, Inc.

"Baumohl has a gift for taking a complicated subject and allowing it to read like a fast-moving novel. I recommend this book if you care about your future finances."

Morris E. Lasky, CEO, Lodging Unlimited, Inc.—manager and consultant for $6 billion in hotel assets; Chairman, Lodging Conference; Chairman, International Hotel Conference

"I think this is an excellent book. It's well written, accessible to a variety of readers, deals with an interesting and important subject, and covers the topic well. It deserves to get a lot of notice and use."

D. Quinn Mills, Alfred J. Weatherhead Jr.,

Professor of Business Administration, Harvard Business School

The fascinating, plain-English guide to economic indicators: what they mean, and how to use them.

Unemployment. Inflation. Consumer confidence. Retail sales... Every morning brings new economic statistics.

  • Which economic indicators really matter?

  • What do they mean for stocks, bonds, interest rates, currencies...your portfolio?

  • How can you use them to make faster, smarter investment decisions?

  • Simple, clear, non-technical, friendly, usable...the only book of its kind!

  • By former renowned TIME Magazine economics journalist Bernard Baumohl.

  • © Copyright Pearson Education. All rights reserved.

    Table of Contents

    1. Copyright
    3. About the Author
    4. Preface
    5. Acknowledgments
    6. The Lock-Up
      1. U.S. Economic Indicators
      2. International Economic Indicators
    7. A Beginner's Guide: Understanding the Lingo
      1. Annual Rates
      2. Business Cycle
      3. Consensus Surveys
      4. Moving Average
      5. Nominal Dollars Versus Real Dollars (Also Known as Current Dollars Versus Constant Dollars)
      6. Revisions and Benchmarks
      7. Seasonal Adjustments
    8. The Most Influential U.S. Economic Indicators
      1. Employment Situation
      2. Weekly Claims for Unemployment Insurance
      3. Help-Wanted Advertising Index
      4. Corporate Layoff Announcements
      5. Mass Layoff Statistics (MLS)
      6. Personal Income and Spending
      7. Retail Sales
      8. E-Commerce Retail Sales
      9. Weekly Chain Store Sales
      10. Consumer Credit Outstanding
      11. Consumer Confidence Index
      12. Survey of Consumer Sentiment
      13. ABC News/Money Magazine Consumer Comfort Index
      14. UBS Index of Investor Optimism
      15. Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
      16. Durable Goods Orders
      17. Factory Orders
      18. Business Inventories
      19. Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
      20. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Manufacturing Survey
      21. Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey
      22. Chicago Purchasing Managers Index (Business Barometer)
      23. Index of Leading Economic Indicators (LEI)
      24. Housing Starts and Building Permits
      25. Existing Home Sales
      26. New Home Sales
      27. Housing Market Index: National Association of Home Builders (NAHB)
      28. Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey and the National Delinquency Survey
      29. Construction Spending
      30. Regional Federal Reserve Bank Reports
      31. Federal Reserve Bank of New York: Empire State Manufacturing Survey
      32. Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia: Business Outlook Survey
      33. Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Manufacturing Survey of the 10th District
      34. Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond: Manufacturing Activity for the Fifth District
      35. Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago: National Activity Index (CFNAI)
      36. The Federal Reserve Board's Beige Book
      37. International Trade in Goods and Services
      38. Current Account Balance (Summary of International Transactions)
      39. Consumer Price Index (CPI)
      40. Producer Price Index (PPI)
      41. Employment Cost Index
      42. Import and Export Prices
      43. Productivity and Costs
      44. Employer Costs for Employee Compensation
      45. Real Earnings
      46. Yield Curve
      47. Market Impact
    9. International Economic Indicators: Why Are They So Important?
      1. German Industrial Production
      2. German IFO Business Survey
      3. German Consumer Price Index (CPI)
      4. Japan's Tankan Survey
      5. Japan Industrial Production
      6. Eurozone: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)
      7. Global: Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index
      8. OECD Composite Leading Indicators (CLI)
      9. China Industrial Production
      10. Brazil Industrial Production
    10. Best Web Sites for U.S. Economic Indicators
      1. Schedule of Releases
      2. Economic News
      3. The U.S. Economy
      4. Consumer Behavior
      5. Employment Conditions
      6. Home Sales and Construction Activity
      7. International Trade
      8. Inflation Pressures
      9. Federal Reserve Reports
      10. The Federal Budget
      11. Interest Rates
      12. Money and Credit
      13. U.S. Dollar
      14. One-Stop Shopping for Economic Statistics
      15. Other Useful Economic Sources on the Web
    11. Best Web Sites for International Economic Indicators
      1. Calendar of Releases for Foreign Economic Data
      2. Sources of Global Economic News
      3. Economic Statistics from Other Countries
      4. Best Megasites for International Economic Statistics
    12. Index