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The Sages: Warren Buffett, George Soros, Paul Volcker, and the Maelstrom of Markets by Charles Morris

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ECONOMICS, MARKETS, AND REALITY
In the Introduction, I cited the gross misestimations of the 2008 economy by the brightest lights of the economic forecasting profession. My impression has long been that macroeconomic forecasts are nearly useless. As a check, I pulled a decade’s economic forecasts from the White House’s Council of Economic Advisers. The Council is staffed by top-flight, often Nobel-quality economists, and while their forecasts can have a political tinge, they rarely stray far from the professional consensus. I started with the 1997 report, released early in the year, when the dot-com boom was well underway. The Council thought the economy’s maximum sustainable real growth rate was 2.5 percent, and expected 1997 growth of only ...

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