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The Quest for Artificial Intelligence by Nils J. Nilsson

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35

The Quest Continues

WHERE WILL THE AI ADVENTURE LEAD NEXT? WE CAN GET SOME IDEA OF THE immediate future simply by extrapolating present trends. Probably there will be some new milestone achievements. Undoubtedly, pieces of AI technology will become ever more common in our homes, automobiles, and activities, and the specialists’ smart tools will become ever smarter and more numerous.

But predicting beyond where AI’s present momentum will take us is problematic. Let’s look at how some previous predictions have fared. Simon’s 1957 prediction of a computer chess champion within ten years was markedly overoptimistic. In 1973, SRI engineers led by Oscar Firschein iteratively queried several AI “experts” about when certain “products” would be realized. ...

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