The Project Management Tool Kit: 100 Tips and Techniques for Getting the Job Done Right

Quantitative Modeling and Computer Simulation

Using a range of estimates for time (or cost) for Monte Carlo simulation provides the basis of the Program Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT). PERT was originally created to assess quantitatively overall project risk, based on three estimates (optimistic, most likely, and pessimistic), defining the mean and variance (risk) for each project estimate. Computer simulation or statistical analysis of the schedule (PERT time) provides an overall assessment of project schedule risk, and similar analysis of cost estimates (PERT cost) determines budget risk.