23.1. Introduction

Forecasts are an elemental part of the new product development process because most, if not all, go/no-go decisions during the process require some kind of forecast on which to base these decisions. New product forecasting, therefore, cannot be avoided nor ignored. Still, many companies consider new product forecasting to be a baneful effort that is characteristically inaccurate due to the uncertainties related to market acceptance, technical feasibility, and company capability to bring the new product to fruition. Successful new product forecasting is possible, though. Those companies that have been more successful with their new product forecasting effort manifest such success by way of select, meaningful techniques and a cross-functional, systematic process (see Chapter 1). In the present chapter, the topic of new product forecasting is addressed, along with how a company may achieve a better, more meaningful new product forecast.

The organization of the chapter is as follows: The chapter begins with a discussion of establishing a definition around what is to be forecast. Various techniques available and considerations surrounding the decision to use a particular technique versus another are then discussed. This is followed by general considerations for the new product forecasting, including guidelines on new product forecast accuracy and what constitutes a successful new product forecasting process.

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