The PDMA Handbook of New Product Development

32.3. Consumer Response Models

The key to obtaining a quick, yet predictive measure of a new product's performance after launch is understanding the consumer adoption process, or consumer response model, at work in the marketer's category. As a very valuable exercise, the marketer should diagram or lay out the sequence of events that will occur when the product is launched and that will contribute to the product's sales performance.

32.3.1. Packaged Goods

The typical model for packaged goods is the awareness—trial—repeat model (see Figure 32.1). It assumes that the adoption process for such products follows these steps. First, consumers are made aware of the new product (usually via advertising). Next, some proportion of those aware of the brand decide to try it (i.e., buy it the first time). Then, some of those triers will decide to buy the product again, and eventually adopt it into their buying repertory. The marketer can use this model to set specific performance goals on awareness, trial, and repeat purchase prior to launch. He/she can then measure these variables (e.g., in a telephone or online tracking study; see Section 32.5.1) and can begin to pinpoint the product's strong and weak areas. For instance, if awareness is below expectations or goals (see Section 32.5.1), the marketer can examine those aspects of the program designed to generate awareness: the advertising, the packaging visibility, public relations, and so on. If trial-given awareness is below expectations, ...