My Outlook for 2008
In The Alchemy of Finance I conducted a real-time experiment where I documented my decision making as a hedge fund manager at the same time as I was making those decisions. I will repeat the exercise here.
JANUARY 1, 2008
The theory of reflexivity does not offer any firm predictions. It does help, however, to formulate some conjectures on what the future may hold in store.
1. A sixty-year period of credit expansion based on the United States exploiting its position at the center of the global financial system and its control over the international reserve currency has come to an end. The current financial crisis will have more severe and longer-lasting consequences than similar crises in the past. Every crisis ...