Contents

Acknowledgments

An Introduction to Bull’s Eye Investing

Chapter One: It’s Good to Be King

Timing Is Everything

Where Were We Again?

When Past Is Not Prelude

Long Waves Explained (Finally)

Catching the Next Wave: Something New This Way Comes!

Chapter Two: Rules of Engagement

Jumping Ahead

Positively, Absolutely Relative

The Correlations Change

It’s All about Assumptions

Lies, Damned Lies, and Statistics

Mean Lean Reversion Machine

Don’t Worry! Be Happy!

Avoiding “Street Rage”

Chapter Three: Faith versus History

Secular Is Not a Religious Term

Sideways to Down for 20 Years?

And on the International Scene . . .

Your Pension or Your Life

Demography Is Destiny

Chapter Four: The Trend Is Your Friend (Until It Isn’t)

The Historic Trend of . . . the Trend

Investing by Committee

If You Take a Risk, You Get Fired

Bull versus Bear, Siegel versus Grantham

Cooking the Data Books

How to Spot a Market Cheerleader

What Will the Stock Market Return over 10 Years?

The “Surprise” in Index Investing

Nash-Kelvinator, Studebaker, and Other U.S. Giants

Chapter Five: Investors Behaving Badly

Chasing Cars

Analyze This: Analysts Are Useless

Tails You Lose, Heads I Win

Why Investors Fail

I’ve Got a Secret System

A Matter of Scale

The Role of Skill?

Analyzing a Fund

Becoming a Top 20 Percent Investor

Investors Behaving Badly

Chapter Six: Dancing with the Bear

The Fundamental Nature of Bull’s Eye Investing

The Home Field Advantage

Home Field Bias

Familiarity Breeds . . . (Over)Confidence

Evidence ...

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