Foreword

The End of the Debt Super cycle and Sideways Markets

It is common among market analysts to talk of secular (long-term) bull and bear markets, but back in the late 1990s I began to notice that markets didn't necessarily march to a neat and tidy bull or bear tune. In my book, Bull's Eye Investing, I explained that investors should focus on valuation instead of price, particularly when markets seem to tread water (lots of action, no prolonged movement up or down) for an extended period of time. In other words, there was a third type of secular market: the trendless market.

A few years later, Vitaliy Katsenelson came along and started talking about sideways (Cowardly Lion) markets.

What a clever way to describe these trendless, whipsaw markets that are terribly maddening to investors. This book is a helpful and easy-to-understand guide to navigating these frustrating periods. You need this guidance here and now, because markets are going to go nowhere for some time.

What is a secular sideways market and why do I say it will continue? To see tomorrow, let's take a look back in time. In doing so we'll be able to readily see how valuable this book will be for your portfolio.

A Little Perspective on Time and Behavior

Markets go from long periods of appreciation to long periods of stagnation. These cycles last on average 17 years. If you bought an index in the United States in 1966, it was 1982 before you saw a new high—that was the last secular sideways market in the United States (until ...

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