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The Great Reflation: How Investors Can Profit from the New World of Money

Book Description

A guide to understanding and thriving in today's new economic environment

Now that the housing and credit bubbles have burst, toppling banks and sending shockwaves through the stock market and around the world, it may seem like the worst has passed. But the full impact of the crises we have recently faced will create far more problems, and unless you're prepared, you'll struggle to regain your financial footing.

In The Great Reflation, author Tony Boeckh helps you understand how these crises, and the policies passed to jumpstart the economy, will play out for investments and business, and provides you with the tools to excel in today's rapidly evolving financial landscape. He reveals how similar episodes compare with the current crises and what this could mean for your financial future.

  • Arms you with practical insights that will allow you to evaluate different investment options

  • Explores the implications of the end of the private debt cycle, the possible rise of a new age of thrift, and the new government debt crisis

  • Reveals how you can profit from once-in-a-lifetime opportunities as well as proper portfolio allocation strategies

While things may never return to "normal," you can still make choices that will allow you to prosper. This book will show you how.

Table of Contents

  1. Copyright
  2. Preface
  3. Acknowledgments
  4. Introduction
  5. I. FINANCIAL INSTABILITY
    1. 1. The Age of Inflation
      1. 1.1. What Is Inflation?
      2. 1.2. Origins of Modern Inflation
      3. 1.3. Why Do We Have Inflation?
      4. 1.4. The Inflation Process
      5. 1.5. The Advantage of Stable Money
      6. 1.6. The Globalization of Inflation
    2. 2. The Debt Supercycle, Illiquidity, and the Crash of 2008–2009
      1. 2.1. Background to the Debt Supercycle
      2. 2.2. Liquidity
      3. 2.3. Central Banks and Liquidity
      4. 2.4. Liquidity: How Much Is Enough?
      5. 2.5. New Regulation
    3. 3. The Long Wave in the Economy
      1. 3.1. The Long Wave
      2. 3.2. Dating Long Wave Cycles
      3. 3.3. When Will the Current Long Wave Decline End?
    4. 4. Government Deficits and the Great Reflation
      1. 4.1. The Private-Sector Debt Overhang
      2. 4.2. Government Deficits and Public Debt: A Look at the Numbers
      3. 4.3. Too Much Government Debt?
    5. 5. Money and the Great Reflation
      1. 5.1. Central Banks and Inflation
      2. 5.2. The Challenges of Central Banks
      3. 5.3. Mechanics and Operations of Central Banks
      4. 5.4. Central Banks and Monetary Control
      5. 5.5. Federal Deficits, Inflation, and Crowding Out
    6. 6. Financial Manias and Bubbles
      1. 6.1. Manias: Preconditions and Displacements
      2. 6.2. Characteristics of Manias
      3. 6.3. The Next Mania
  6. II. THE MARKETS: PREPARING FOR THE NEW INVESTMENT ENVIRONMENT
    1. 7. Asset Allocation: Investing in a Turbulent World
      1. 7.1. Asset Allocation
      2. 7.2. Competing in the Financial Jungle
      3. 7.3. Stocks for the Long Run
      4. 7.4. Bonds for the Long Run
      5. 7.5. Asset Allocation: Other Considerations
      6. 7.6. Asset Allocation and Inflation
    2. 8. The Stock Market
      1. 8.1. Stock Market Cycles
      2. 8.2. Tactical Stock Market Reallocation
        1. 8.2.1. Tool 1: Money, Credit, and Liquidity
        2. 8.2.2. Tool 2: Valuation
        3. 8.2.3. Tool 3: Psychology
        4. 8.2.4. Tool 4: Statistical (Technical) Analysis
      3. 8.3. Using the Tools
    3. 9. Interest Rates and the Bond Market
      1. 9.1. Some Background on Interest Rates
      2. 9.2. Tools for Interest Rate Forecasting
      3. 9.3. Bond Investing for the Future
      4. 9.4. Inflation-Adjusted Bonds
    4. 10. The U.S. Dollar
      1. 10.1. Some Background on the Dollar
      2. 10.2. Determinants of the U.S. Dollar
      3. 10.3. The Dollar's Future
    5. 11. Gold
      1. 11.1. Has Gold Mania II Already Started?
      2. 11.2. Why Gold Has Enduring Value
      3. 11.3. Gold as a Monetary Standard
      4. 11.4. What Drives the Long-Run Gold Price
      5. 11.5. Gold as an Investment
      6. 11.6. Some Investment Tools for Gold
    6. 12. Commodities
      1. 12.1. Some Background
      2. 12.2. The Investment Case
      3. 12.3. The Long-Term Trend
      4. 12.4. The 18-Year Cycle
      5. 12.5. Commodity Investing in the Shorter Term
    7. 13. Real Estate
      1. 13.1. Real Estate: Some Background
      2. 13.2. Residential Real Estate
      3. 13.3. The Future of House Prices
      4. 13.4. Commercial Real Estate
  7. III. THE FUTURE: IS A RETURNTO LASTING STABILITYPOSSIBLE?
    1. 14. Declining America:Will It Recover?
      1. 14.1. The Decline of the American Empire
      2. 14.2. The Long Wave Revisited
    2. 15. Politics and Policies in the Long Wave Trough
      1. 15.1. From Conservatism to Parochialism
      2. 15.2. Future U.S. Policy: Constructive or Destructive?
        1. 15.2.1. Restructuring
        2. 15.2.2. Monetary
        3. 15.2.3. Regulation
      3. 15.3. The Fiscal Deficit
        1. 15.3.1. Social Policies
        2. 15.3.2. International Monetary Reform
  8. Summary and Conclusions
    1. 15.4. Investing in the Aftermath of the Great Reflation
    2. 15.5. The Markets
  9. Notes
  10. About the Author