The Global eBook Market: Current Conditions & Future Projections

Chapter 9. Outlook and Projections

By early 2013, ebooks start to show a significant presence in markets outside of the English-language realm, notably in Europe, with Germany clearly in the lead of this development in continental Europe.

Reports and anecdotal evidence have shown a strong increase in the penetration of digital reading devices—ereaders and tablets combined—all across Europe by the end of 2011, with a subsequent surge in ebook purchases in January. One year later, devices continue to be main drivers of this process, and in fall 2012, a new generation of ereaders as well as lightweight and cheap tablets have been successfully introduced in many markets. The boost in gadgets however got additional help from a few outstanding global blockbuster bestsellers, notably the erotic trilogy Shades of Grey, by E.L. James.

First accounts collected for this report provide significant evidence that ebook downloads have again soared around and after the holiday and year-end season in most markets around continental Europe, hinting at continuing expansion of ebooks in 2013. Projections of a market share for ebooks by 2015 of around 15 percent seem realistic at least for Germany, notably as in general fiction in some of the larger publishing houses, ebook revenues are estimated to have reached around 7 or 8 percent by the end of 2012. Other countries, like Spain and Italy, may be closer to 10 or 12 percent by then. France is more difficult to place in this context, as no solid numbers ...