The First Mile

APPENDIX B

Cognitive Biases and the First Mile

Navigating the first mile involves a scientific bent and a curious mind. Even the best minds, however, are subject to predictable biases that scientists argue are rooted in tens of thousands of years of evolution. Innovators facing the first mile ought to be aware of the following eight biases:

1. Planning fallacy: “Insiders” tend to do a poor job of estimating the time and cost of tasks. Corporations that are used to precision encounter endless frustrations when an innovator is consistently behind schedule and over budget.

2. Confirmation bias: In a noted experiment in the 1950s, a scientist showed a group of students from Princeton and Dartmouth footage from a controversial game between the two ...