You are previewing The Evergreen Portfolio: Timeless Strategies to Survive and Prosper from Investing Pros.
O'Reilly logo
The Evergreen Portfolio: Timeless Strategies to Survive and Prosper from Investing Pros

Book Description

A practical system for growing and protecting wealth in today's volatile markets

Martin Truax and Ron Miller are financial professionals, who unlike others in this field, have made money in today's volatile market. While stock markets have been down fifty percent, they've managed to be up seventy percent. This book clearly explains the highly successful portfolio management system used by the authors to protect their clients' wealth as well as garner substantial gains-by participating in profitable market opportunities when they occur.

Divided into several informative and engaging sections, The Evergreen Portfolio reveals how you can use hedges to protect the long portion of your portfolio when the market starts to go down. It covers the tactical and technical methodologies needed to protect and grow your assets at a time when many investors are getting wiped out.

  • Discusses the keys to succeeding in today's market, including the best ways to invest in gold, diversify with foreign currency, and much more

  • Contains insights from top minds in the market such as Mark Skousen and Bob Precther

  • Offers an effective solution to the investment and retirement problems we all now face

Written with the serious investor in mind, The Evergreen Portfolio reveals one of the best ways to protect and grow your money in a turbulent financial environment.

Table of Contents

  1. Copyright
  2. Preface
  3. 1. The Evergreen Portfolio: The Big Picture
    1. 1.1. The Long Cycle
    2. 1.2. Our Future
    3. 1.3. Asset Placement
      1. 1.3.1. Bonds
      2. 1.3.2. Fixed Returns
      3. 1.3.3. Stocks
      4. 1.3.4. Cash
      5. 1.3.5. Real Estate
    4. 1.4. Reality
    5. 1.5. What Can We Do?
    6. 1.6. Back to Reality
    7. 1.7. The Investment Plan
  4. 2. How Did We Get into This Mess? And What Is the Best Way Out?
    1. 2.1. Question 1: How Did We Get into This Mess?
    2. 2.2. Question 2: Where Are We Now in the Recovery Cycle?
    3. 2.3. Question 3: What Is Your Favorite Solution to This Problem?
      1. 2.3.1. Favorite Solutions of the Media
      2. 2.3.2. Our Favorite Solutions
    4. 2.4. Question 4: What Is Your Long-Term Outlook for the Market?
    5. 2.5. Question 5: How Should We Invest in This Environment?
  5. 3. Know the Signs of the Times
    1. 3.1. Adam Smith's Ideal Model
    2. 3.2. The Return of Depressing Keynesian Economics
    3. 3.3. The Big Three in Economics
    4. 3.4. Is the Global Economy Depression Proof or Accident Prone?
      1. 3.4.1. Few Agree with Friedman Anymore
    5. 3.5. Is the Dollar Going to Collapse?
    6. 3.6. When the Rich Get Poorer, Look Out Below
    7. 3.7. Investment Strategy in Uncertain Times: Know the Signs of the Times
    8. 3.8. Ending On a Positive Note
  6. 4. How Fed Policy Fuels Market Cycles
    1. 4.1. The Birth of the Modern Federal Financial System
    2. 4.2. The Five 17-Year Bull and Bear Markets since the Birth of the Fed
      1. 4.2.1. The 1929–1949 Bear Market: Caused by Government Policies, Not Wall Street
      2. 4.2.2. The 1949–1966 Bull Market was Mostly Fueled by a Revolution in Free Trade
      3. 4.2.3. The 1966–1982 Bear Market Was Mostly Fueled by Bad Fed and Fiscal Policies
      4. 4.2.4. The 1982–1999 Bull Market Was Fueled by Tax Cuts and Volcker's War on Inflation
      5. 4.2.5. The Record-Setting Bear Market of 2000–2009
    3. 4.3. What Caused the Mega-Crash of 2008? Fed Panic, Credit Fantasies, and "Guns and Butter II"
    4. 4.4. Housing: America's Most Speculative Asset Class?
    5. 4.5. Conclusion: The Next Move Is Up to the Fed, Congress, and Voters (Like You and Me)
  7. 5. Investing and Hedging Strategies for a Topsy-Turvy Financial World
    1. 5.1. Wall Street "Myths"
      1. 5.1.1. Buying and Holding a Diversified Portfolio Is the Best Investment Strategy
      2. 5.1.2. Dividends Don't Matter—Go for Growth
      3. 5.1.3. Diversification Alone Provides Safety
      4. 5.1.4. Fundamental Security Analysis Can Always Be Trusted
      5. 5.1.5. Technical Analysis Doesn't Work
      6. 5.1.6. There Are No Successful Market Timers
      7. 5.1.7. Equity Investing Requires a Long-Term Time Horizon
      8. 5.1.8. Bonds are Always "Safe" Investments
    2. 5.2. "Investment Eras" Are Important Influences on Market Behavior
      1. 5.2.1. Historical Perspective
        1. 5.2.1.1. The American Industrialization Era
        2. 5.2.1.2. The Stagflation Era
        3. 5.2.1.3. The Great Bull Era
        4. 5.2.1.4. Internet Era I: Globalization
        5. 5.2.1.5. Internet Era II: Global Intercapitalization
    3. 5.3. Flexible Portfolio Method versus Modern Portfolio Theory
      1. 5.3.1. Flexible Portfolio Method
    4. 5.4. Strategic Asset Allocations for the Times—Prepare for Boom, Bust, or Muddling Through
    5. 5.5. Equity Income Investing—the Preferred Core Holding
      1. 5.5.1. Hypothetical Example of Why Dividends Trump Interest Most of the Time
        1. 5.5.1.1. Energy and Natural Resources Transportation
        2. 5.5.1.2. Energy and Natural Resources Production
        3. 5.5.1.3. Energy and Natural Resource Utilities
        4. 5.5.1.4. Miscellaneous Income Securities
        5. 5.5.1.5. Business Development Finance Companies
        6. 5.5.1.6. Bond Fund Trading Strategies
        7. 5.5.1.7. Telecommunications—Regular and Hybrid Securities
        8. 5.5.1.8. Specialty Equity Income Strategies
        9. 5.5.1.9. Real Estate Investment Trust
        10. 5.5.1.10. Final Comment on Equity Income Investing
    6. 5.6. Hedging Tactics for Portfolio Risk Management
    7. 5.7. Simple or Complex Technical Analysis—Your Choice
      1. 5.7.1. Basic Low-Maintenance Risk Management
      2. 5.7.2. The Five-Indicator Method
      3. 5.7.3. Complex Technical Analysis Approach to Risk Management
    8. 5.8. America's New Role in the Shrinking World
  8. 6. Conquer the Crash, Condensed*
    1. 6.1. A Myth Exposed
    2. 6.2. Economic Deterioration During the Final Decade of Wave V
      1. 6.2.1. Portent of Reversal?
      2. 6.2.2. Depressions and the Stock Market
    3. 6.3. What Are the Signs of a Topping Stock Market?
      1. 6.3.1. Historically High Stock Market Valuation
    4. 6.4. Historically Optimistic Psychology
      1. 6.4.1. The Next Psychological Trend
      2. 6.4.2. How Far Will the Market Fall?
    5. 6.5. When Does Deflation Occur?
      1. 6.5.1. What Triggers the Change to Deflation
      2. 6.5.2. Why Deflationary Crashes and Depressions Go Together
      3. 6.5.3. Can the Fed Stop Deflation?
      4. 6.5.4. Endgame
      5. 6.5.5. Currency Hyperinflation
    6. 6.6. Making Preparations and Taking Action
  9. 7. The Gone Fishin' Portfolio*
    1. 7.1. The Unvarnished Truth About Your Money
    2. 7.2. The Road to Financial Freedom
    3. 7.3. Your Single Most Important Investment Decision
    4. 7.4. The Gone Fishin' Portfolio Unveiled
    5. 7.5. The Proof Is In the Pudding
  10. 8. How You Can Profit from Chaostan*
    1. 8.1. Geopolitical Threats (from the April 2009 Early Warning Report)
      1. 8.1.1. Riots, Strikes, and Large Demonstrations
        1. 8.1.1.1. Washington's Closed-Mindedness
        2. 8.1.1.2. The Growing Failure in Iraq
        3. 8.1.1.3. Pakistan
        4. 8.1.1.4. China
        5. 8.1.1.5. Russia
    2. 8.2. East Europe—the Baltics (from the May 2009 Early Warning Report)
    3. 8.3. Piracy (from the February 1998 Early Warning Report)
    4. 8.4. Persian Gulf (from the January 2007 Early Warning Report)
      1. 8.4.1. The Long-Term Outlook for the Mideast
    5. 8.5. The Coming War with China (from the June 2000 Early Warning Report)
    6. 8.6. If You are a Speculator (from the April 2009 Early Warning Report)
    7. 8.7. Closing Thoughts
  11. 9. The New Global Investing Strategy
    1. 9.1. American Superiority
    2. 9.2. Reasons to Internationalize
    3. 9.3. The Global Approach
    4. 9.4. Where to Find Bargains
    5. 9.5. The Balance of Power Shifts East and South
    6. 9.6. The Decline in the Dollar
    7. 9.7. Growth from Emerging Countries
    8. 9.8. Ways to Invest Internationally
  12. 10. High-Yield Investing in the Shadow of the Big W
    1. 10.1. Recovery or Relapse
    2. 10.2. In the Sectors
  13. 11. The Case for Growth
    1. 11.1. The Growth Shift
    2. 11.2. The End of Easy Oil
    3. 11.3. An End to Easy Oil
  14. 12. Gold Facts
    1. 12.1. Gold Facts
    2. 12.2. Mining and Production
    3. 12.3. Analysis for Gold, Associated Scams, and Quality Control
    4. 12.4. Gold as Money and a Measure of Wealth
    5. 12.5. Outlook for the Gold Mining Industry
  15. 13. The Rare Coin Market: Understanding How It Works
    1. 13.1. How to Participate in the Rare Coin Market
      1. 13.1.1. Basic Strategy #1: Buy the Right Coin
      2. 13.1.2. Basic Strategy #2: Buy the Right Grade
    2. 13.2. Specific Coin Recommendations
    3. 13.3. What Not to Buy
    4. 13.4. Two Final Very Important Tips
  16. 14. Other Currencies versus the Dollar
    1. 14.1. Currency Investing: Adding an Asset Class with Global Clout
      1. 14.1.1. 1971–1978
      2. 14.1.2. 1978–1985
      3. 14.1.3. 1985–1995
      4. 14.1.4. 1995–2001
      5. 14.1.5. 2002–2010: The Present
    2. 14.2. Diversification
    3. 14.3. How to View Currencies
    4. 14.4. Which Currencies Should We Consider for the Long Run Now?
    5. 14.5. The Future of Currencies
  17. 15. The 2010 Estate Tax Law: Here to Stay or Going Away?
    1. 15.1. Asset Titling
    2. 15.2. Formula Clauses in Wills
    3. 15.3. Gifting
    4. 15.4. Summary
  18. Epilogue: THE TRUTH ABOUT DEFICITS, DEBTS, DELEVERAGING, DEFLATION, AND DERIVATIVES
    1. 15.5. The Growing Government Deficit Dilemma
    2. 15.6. "Guaranteed Lifetime Security" Undermines Most State Budgets
    3. 15.7. Boomers Building Castles of Debt
    4. 15.8. Deleveraging Leads to Asset Price Deflation
    5. 15.9. Derivatives: Weapons of Mass Financial Destruction
    6. 15.10. The Next Move: A Return to "Stagflation"
    7. 15.11. A New Investment Strategy for New Times: The Evergreen Portfolio
  19. About the Authors
  20. About the Contributors