History and knowledge
Take a look at Fig. 10.1, which charts sales figures over three years. Before you read on, grab a pencil and extend the lines to show what you think might happen to sales during the year ahead.
Now, suppose you were told the following facts. First, the Expanding Company’s entire product line was just rendered obsolete by a miracle product released by a competitor. Second, the Seasonal Company has just replaced its winter and summer products with a single all-weather gizmo. Third, the Company in Decline has just won a huge government contract that will double sales. ...
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