Conclusion

This chapter should have demonstrated that the spreadsheet work required for forecasting is remarkably simple. Rulers only produced what might be regarded as a central forecast (depending on what you know about the environment). The variation on the trend above could be looked upon as a best-case scenario. A little thought and a few more keystrokes would give the worrying worst case. Of course, these are quantities. The thing to do now is to convert them into a bottom line in money terms – which is what we do in the next few chapters. This is where estimating will come into play.

Presenting a forecast

  1. Describe background.

  2. Specify key assumptions.

  3. Explain basis for forecast (projections, rules of thumb, cause and effect).

  4. Preview the key ...

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