Cause and effect
The foregoing discussion about patterns touched on cause and effect. During your analysis of special one-off influences, you probably hit on some relationships that you can use to good effect in the future. Try to find rules of thumb, preferably with timing built-in, such as ‘a 10% increase in advertising in month one leads to a 2% increase in sales spread over months two and three’, or ‘a 5% cut in prices boosts sales by 10%’.
Turning points
You often have to make bold assumptions and guesses in order to arrive at workable rules of thumb. Sometimes, knowing about the turning points is almost as useful. If interest rates stop falling and start rising, or the dollar takes a dive, it might signify that you should run for an umbrella. ...
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