Prediction of future events is futile.
The starting point to know the future is the realization that there are two different, though complementary, approaches:
- Finding and exploiting the time lag between the appearance of a discontinuity in the economy and society and its full impact—one might call this anticipation of a future that has already happened.
- Imposing on the yet unborn future a new idea that tries to give direction and shape to what is to come. This one might call making the future happen.
The future that has already happened is not within the present business; it is outside: a change in society, knowledge, culture, industry, or economic structure. It is, moreover, a major trend, a break in ...
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