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The Complete Idiot's Guide to Game Theory by Edward Rosenthal, Ph.D., Edward C. Rosenthal

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Statistics, Data, and Trustworthy Conclusions

The courtroom example might leave you wondering how many convicted defendants in real courtrooms are truly innocent, and how many acquitted defendants are actually guilty. Juries can make mistakes! Whether you’re considering courtroom verdicts or the results, for example, of medical tests, you really should consider how trustworthy they are.

Is That Swab Reliable?

It would be very hard to discover what proportion of defendants in actual courts are “false positives” (they were found guilty but were truly innocent) or “false negatives”
(found innocent but were actually guilty). But very often we can discover such information about medical tests. The result of a lab test may not match the result ...

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