The Coming China Wars: Where They Will Be Fought and How They Can Be Won, Revised and Expanded Edition

4. The “Blood and Nukes for Oil” Wars—The Sum of All Chinese Fears

Throughout the summer and into the fall of 1941, Japanese negotiators and the United States were at loggerheads. The U.S.-led oil embargo would not be suspended until the Japanese stopped their militaristic expansion. ... By September 1941, Japanese reserves had dropped to 50 million barrels, and their navy alone was burning 2,900 barrels of oil every hour. The Japanese had reached a crossroads. If they did nothing, they would be out of oil and options in less than two years. If they chose war, there was a good chance they could lose a protracted conflict. Given the possibility of success with the second option versus none with the first option, the Japanese chose war.

—Lieutenant ...