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Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers: Integrating Technical Analysis with Fundamentals to Improve Performance, + Website

Book Description

A comprehensive guide to technical analysis for both the novice and the professional

Technical analysis is a vital tool for any trader, asset manager, or investor who wants to earn top returns. Successful Stock Signals for Traders and Portfolio Managers lets you combine technical analysis and fundamental analysis using existing technical signals to improve your investing performance. Author Tom Lloyd Sr. explains all the technical indicators you need to know, including moving averages, relative strength, support and resistance, sell and buy signals, candlesticks, point and figure charts, Fibonacci levels, Bollinger Bands, and both classic and new indicators. Merging these technical indicators with fundamental analysis will keep you in a portfolio of outperforming stocks, sharpen your fundamental buy discipline, and put your sell discipline on autopilot.

  • Includes case studies applying technical analysis to current trending and hotly debated stocks like Facebook, LinkedIn, and Netflix

  • Offers thorough and straightforward guidance on technical analysis for both professional and individual investors

  • Covers the vital indicators in the public domain that investors need to know

Whether you're an individual investor who wants to beat the indexes, a trader looking for high-risk, high-return positions, or a portfolio manager who wants to take a fundamental approach, this an ideal guide to technical analysis and indicators.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Series
  3. Title Page
  4. Copyright
  5. Dedication
  6. Preface
  7. Acknowledgments
  8. Chapter 1: Using Moving Averages and Relative Strength Performance to Beat the Index
    1. KNOW THE PLAYING FIELD
    2. APPLE COMPUTER'S 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGE
    3. 20-, 50-, AND 200-DAY MOVING AVERAGES
    4. RELATIVE STRENGTH VERSUS THE S&P 500 INDEX
    5. KELTNER CHANNELS
    6. MEAN REVERSION
    7. BREAKOUT SIGNAL
    8. APPLE'S TOP AT $644
    9. RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX (RSI)
    10. MONEY FLOW INDEX (MFI)
    11. STANDARD DEVIATION (STDDEV)
    12. RELATIVE STRENGTH PERFORMANCE, AAPL: $SPX
    13. SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    14. SUMMARY
  9. Chapter 2: On-Balance Volume, Accumulation/Distribution, Chaikin Money Flow, Pivot Point, Resistance and Support, and Point & Figure Chart, with Apple and Google Exhibits
    1. PRICE AND VOLUME
    2. CHAIKIN MONEY FLOW (CMF)
    3. MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE/DIVERGENCE (MACD)
    4. VALUE-ADDED SIGNALS
    5. USING MOVING AVERAGES
    6. PIVOT POINT, SUPPORT AND RESISTANCE POINTS
    7. REVERSE HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS BOTTOM
    8. APPLE EARNINGS REPORT
    9. CASE STUDY QUESTIONS ON APPLE
    10. PLANNING FOR APPLE'S EARNINGS REPORT
    11. YOU MUST NOW MAKE A DECISION ON APPLE BEFORE EARNINGS
    12. ANSWERS TO THE CASE STUDY QUESTIONS
    13. SUMMARY OF THE APPLE CASE STUDY
    14. GOOGLE CASE STUDY
    15. SUMMARY OF THE GOOGLE CASE STUDY
  10. Chapter 3: Bottoms and Tops, Buying and Selling Cycles, and Percentage Price Oscillator (PPO), with IBM and Hewlett-Packard Exhibits
    1. INVERTED HEAD-AND-SHOULDERS BOTTOM
    2. DOUBLE TOP AND “V” BOTTOM
    3. RESISTANCE
    4. CYCLES
    5. WRITING PUTS AND CALLS
    6. THE “CLOUD STOCKS” FOR THE FUTURE
    7. LONG-TERM INVESTING
    8. BUY-AND-HOLD STRATEGY IS PROBLEMATIC
    9. HEWLETT-PACKARD CASE STUDY
    10. CASE STUDY ANSWER
    11. PERCENTAGE PRICE OSCILLATOR (PPO)
    12. MY ANSWER TO THE CASE STUDY
    13. SUMMARY
  11. Chapter 4: Sell Signals
    1. TECHNICAL SIGNALS BEFORE A BLOWUP
    2. TECHNICAL SIGNALS AFTER A BLOWUP
    3. DOUBLE-TOP WARNING
    4. THE 10- AND 20-DAY MOVING AVERAGE SIGNALS
    5. AROON OSCILLATOR AND DIRECTIONAL MOVEMENT
    6. COMMENTS AFTER THE HERBALIFE BLOWUP
    7. HERBALIFE CASE STUDY CHALLENGE
    8. ANSWERS TO THE CASE STUDY QUESTIONS
    9. THE DAILY CHART LOOKS MORE BEARISH
    10. SUMMARY
  12. Chapter 5: Supply and Demand, Candlestick Signals, and Point & Figure Chart, with Facebook Exhibits
    1. CANDLESTICK SELL SIGNAL FOR FACEBOOK
    2. FAILED FACEBOOK VERSUS LUCKY LINKEDIN
    3. PORTFOLIO MANAGERS PREFER FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
    4. THE FACEBOOK IPO GAME
    5. FACEBOOK SELLOFF
    6. FACEBOOK DIVES BECAUSE OF SUPPLY
    7. TRADERS LOOK FOR INEFFICIENT MARKETS
    8. FACEBOOK SECRETS TOOK PRICE DOWN
    9. FACEBOOK: THE RUSH TO SELL ON THE FIRST DAY
    10. FACEBOOK PRICE IN SEARCH OF A BOTTOM
    11. WHY IS PRICE GOING DOWN?
    12. SEEING DEMAND/SUPPLY ON THE CHART
    13. WAITING FOR BUY SIGNALS
    14. PICTURE OF A “BUSTED IPO”
    15. POINT & FIGURE CHART SHOWS CONTINUED SELLING
    16. ON-BALANCE VOLUME
    17. ACCUMULATION/DISTRIBUTION
    18. SUMMARY PICTURE OF SUPPLY AND DEMAND
    19. FACEBOOK'S FIRST EARNINGS REPORT
    20. CMF SIGNAL
    21. MFI AND MACD SIGNALS
    22. GRAVESTONE DOJI CANDLESTICK SIGNAL
    23. PIVOT POINT SUPPORT/RESISTANCE LEVELS
    24. DAY–TRADING SIGNALS
    25. TREMENDOUS SUPPLY OVERHANG
    26. SUMMARY
  13. Chapter 6: Breakout Signals
    1. DOUBLE BOTTOM AND BULLISH RECTANGLE BREAKOUT
    2. WHAT IS WRONG WITH MICROSOFT?
    3. WHAT CAUSED MICROSOFT TO BREAK OUT?
    4. FALLING WEDGE SIGNALS DOUBLE BOTTOM
    5. CANDLESTICK HAMMER A BULLISH REVERSAL SIGNAL
    6. CASE STUDY: HOME DEPOT ASCENDING TRIANGLE
    7. SUMMARY
  14. Chapter 7: Relative Strength Index, Stochastic, and MACD, with Lululemon Exhibits
    1. CASE STUDY: LULULEMON BEFORE EARNINGS ARE REPORTED
    2. WHAT ARE YOU READY TO DO?
    3. ANSWER TO THE CASE STUDY
    4. NOW ARE YOU READY TO SELL CALL OPTIONS?
    5. FALSE SELL SIGNALS IN THE 200-DAY AND RELATIVE STRENGTH
    6. SUMMARY
  15. Chapter 8: Blow-Off Top, Trend Line Reversal, Channel Breakout, and Fan Lines, with Green Mountain Coffee Exhibits
    1. WHY STUDY STOCKS THAT BLOW UP?
    2. HOW TO MAKE MONEY WHEN A STOCK CRASHES
    3. BLOW-OFF TOP AND TREND REVERSAL
    4. SELL SIGNALS BEFORE THE FALL
    5. SELLING SHORT AFTER EINHORN'S PRESENTATION
    6. THE FATAL SELL SIGNALS
    7. BOTTOM FISHING GREEN MOUNTAIN A YEAR LATER
    8. LOOKING FOR BUY SIGNALS
    9. TRADING THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE
    10. SUMMARY
  16. Chapter 9: Classic Top, Death Cross, Double Bottom, Bull Trap, and Dead Cat Bounce, with Netflix Exhibits
    1. CLASSIC TOP: END OF A LONG-TERM UPTREND
    2. YOU MUST HAVE A SELL DISCIPLINE
    3. DEATH CROSS, DEAD CAT BOUNCE TO A BULL TRAP, DOUBLE BOTTOM
    4. BUY SIGNALS TO DOUBLE YOUR MONEY ON THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE
    5. DEAD CAT BOUNCE UP FAILS
    6. BROKEN “W” BOTTOM—NEGATIVE SURPRISE
    7. SECOND DEAD CAT BOUNCE AND SECOND FAILURE
    8. SUMMARY
  17. Chapter 10: Gaps, Divergences, Breakdowns and Breakouts, and Oscillators, with Research In Motion Exhibits
    1. APPLE VERSUS RESEARCH IN MOTION, STOCK PAIRS HEDGING
    2. THE FALL OF RESEARCH IN MOTION FROM $148 TO $35
    3. NEGATIVE DIVERGENCE
    4. DOUBLE BOTTOM, DEAD CAT BOUNCE, DOUBLE TOP, CAPITULATION
    5. OVERSOLD/OVERBOUGHT OSCILLATOR
    6. TRADING THE DEAD CAT BOUNCE
    7. RESEARCH IN MOTION BREAKOUT BUY SIGNALS
    8. RESEARCH IN MOTION'S DOUBLE-TOP DIVE FROM $88 TO $6
    9. RESEARCH IN MOTION: ALL SIGNALS BEARISH FOR THREE YEARS
    10. SUMMARY
  18. Chapter 11: Relative Strength, Elliott Wave, and Fibonacci Levels, with Priceline Exhibits
    1. GUIDELINES FOR SUCCESS
    2. PRICELINE FIVE-YEAR PERFORMANCE VERSUS APPLE
    3. CASE STUDY CHALLENGE FOR PRICELINE
    4. FUNDAMENTAL MODELS
    5. PRICELINE SHORT-TERM DAILY CHART SIGNALS
    6. PRICELINE LONG-TERM WEEKLY CHART
    7. ANSWER TO THE PRICELINE CASE STUDY
    8. MY POSTMORTEM ARTICLE ON MARKETWATCH.COM
    9. PROACTIVE BEFORE EARNINGS
    10. ELLIOTT WAVE TARGETS A $440 DOWNSIDE TEST
    11. SUMMARY
  19. Chapter 12: Evolution of Technical Signals from A to Z, with LinkedIn Exhibits
    1. LINKEDIN IPO SUCCESSFUL
    2. LINKEDIN SELLOFF AFTER DOUBLING THE FIRST DAY
    3. PRACTICE WITH THE LINKEDIN SIGNALS
    4. DO YOU BUY LINKEDIN ON WEAKNESS?
    5. LINKEDIN CASE STUDY CHALLENGE
    6. WALL STREET PRICE TARGETS FOR LINKEDIN
    7. WHAT THE QUANTS ARE SAYING
    8. WHAT THE CHARTS ARE SAYING ABOUT DEMAND AND SUPPLY
    9. YOUR DECISION REQUIRED BEFORE LINKEDIN EARNINGS ARE ANNOUNCED
    10. ANSWERS TO THE LINKEDIN CASE STUDY
    11. SUMMARY
  20. Chapter 13: Using the 200-Day Moving Average and Relative Strength to Rotate In and Out of Winners, with Starbucks Exhibits
    1. PORTFOLIO MANAGERS CREATE PRICE TRENDS
    2. WHAT DO PORTFOLIO MANAGERS LOOK AT?
    3. WHAT DO TRADERS LOOK AT?
    4. MONTHLY CHART FOR PORTFOLIO MANAGERS
    5. LEADING SELL SIGNALS
    6. WHAT WILL THE WEEKLY CHART DO FOR THE PORTFOLIO MANAGER?
    7. POSITIVE UP ARROWS IN EXHIBIT 13.3
    8. HOW DO YOU TRADE STARBUCKS SHORT TERM?
    9. DAY TRADING STARBUCKS AFTER GOOD EARNINGS
    10. SUMMARY
  21. Chapter 14: Technical Signals for Your Buy and Sell Discipline, from Stochastics to the 200-Day Moving Average, with Chipotle Mexican Grill Exhibits
    1. PRICE JUMPS ON THE ANALYST UPGRADE
    2. DAY TRADING THE NEWS
    3. TRADING SYSTEMS
    4. TRADING INFORMATION
    5. DAY-TRADING BUY SIGNALS
    6. SELL SIGNALS ON THE SHORT-TERM DAILY CHART
    7. BUYING AT THE BOTTOM
    8. CHANGE IN CHARACTER FROM BULL TO BEAR
    9. SELLING AT THE TOP
    10. HAMMER CANDLESTICK REVERSAL SIGNAL
    11. COUNTING DOWN WITH FIBONACCI AND ELLIOTT
    12. OPTIMIZE ENTRY LEVEL AFTER FUNDAMENTAL BUY SIGNAL
    13. WAITING FOR THE BOTTOM
    14. SUMMARY
  22. Chapter 15: Using Money Flow, Trend Lines, RSI, Stochastic, MACD, and Buy/Sell Signals to Rotate In and Out of Losers, with J.P. Morgan and Goldman Sachs Exhibits
    1. J.P. MORGAN AND GOLDMAN SACHS VERSUS THE REGULATORS
    2. J.P. MORGAN BUY/SELL SIGNALS
    3. SIGNALS FOR STOCKS IN A TRADING RANGE
    4. BUYING THE BOTTOM FOR A TRADE
    5. TRADER'S BUY SIGNALS
    6. PORTFOLIO MANAGER'S BUY/SELL SIGNALS
    7. GOLDMAN SACHS, BEST OF BREED
    8. GOLDMAN'S LATEST SELL SIGNAL
    9. IS THE GOLDMAN SACHS BOTTOM AT $86 OR $43?
    10. SUMMARY
  23. Chapter 16: Day Trading Using Candlesticks, Real-Time Volume and Price, RSI, MFI, MACD, and 20- to 50-Minute Moving Averages, with Salesforce Exhibits
    1. WHAT IS THE WORLD OF TRADING?
    2. TRADING TECHNOLOGY
    3. HOW HAS TECHNICAL ANALYSIS CHANGED?
    4. TRADING PROFITABLY
    5. CASE STUDY IN TRADING SALESFORCE.COM
    6. ANSWERS TO MONDAY'S DAY-TRADING EXAMPLE
    7. TIME FOR THE SECOND TRADE ON MONDAY— WHAT WILL YOU DO?
    8. ANSWER TO THE SECOND TRADE ON MONDAY
    9. THIRD TRADE FOR MONDAY
    10. ANSWER TO MONDAY'S THIRD TRADE
    11. TUESDAY'S DAY-TRADING CASE QUESTION FOR YOU TO ANSWER
    12. ANSWER TO TUESDAY'S CASE STUDY CHALLENGE
    13. THERE IS MUCH MORE TO DAY TRADING
    14. SUMMARY
  24. Chapter 17: Investors Need Reliable Signals
    1. FINDING GREAT STOCKS SUCH AS APPLE
    2. DOW 30 STOCKS
    3. HOME DEPOT—ANATOMY OF A BUY
    4. TECHNICAL ANALYSIS WITH FUNDAMENTALS
    5. WAL-MART—ANATOMY OF A BUY ON WEAKNESS
    6. SUMMARY
  25. Chapter 18: Traders Need Stocks to Trade
    1. TRADERS ARE EARLY BIRDS
    2. TRADERS ARE OPPORTUNISTIC
    3. TRADERS HAVE A LIST OF LONGS AND SHORTS
    4. GAMESTOP ON THE LONG LIST BUT IT'S A TRADING SHORT
    5. TRADING THE POSITIVE SURPRISE IN GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE
    6. WHY NO SHORT SQUEEZE IN GREEN MOUNTAIN COFFEE?
    7. PREPARING A TRADER'S SHORT LIST
    8. SUMMARY
  26. Chapter 19: Winning in the Stock Market Using Technical Analysis, S&P 500 Index, SPY, and Reading the Market, with SPY Exhibits
    1. WHAT IS THE CURRENT STATUS OF THE MARKET?
    2. ELLIOTT WAVES
    3. USING THE STOCK TRADER'S ALMANAC
    4. IDENTIFYING TOPS IN THE MARKET
    5. IS THIS A MARKET TOP?
    6. PERCENTAGE PRICE OSCILLATOR'S BUY/SELL SIGNALS
    7. MOVING AVERAGE CONVERGENCE DIVERGENCE'S BUY/SELL SIGNALS
    8. KNOW SURE THING BUY/SELL SIGNALS
    9. KELTNER CHANNELS BUY/SELL SIGNALS
    10. CLOSER VIEW OF THE MONTHLY CHART
    11. SWITCHING TO THE WEEKLY CHART (EXHIBIT 19.3)
    12. THE DAILY CHART EVERYONE USES FIRST
    13. THE DAY TRADER IS TRYING TO DODGE THE FISCAL CLIFF NEWS
    14. DAY-TRADING 5-MINUTE CHART (EXHIBIT 19.5)
    15. TRADER'S BUY SIGNALS (BLUE LINE IN EXHIBIT 19.5)
    16. TRADER'S SELL SIGNALS (RED LINE ON EXHIBIT 19.5)
    17. SUMMARY
  27. About the Companion Website
  28. About the Author
  29. Index