PREFACE

This book aims to provide a simple and understandable introduction to the statistical techniques of success probability estimation.

Success probability estimation offers an original and practical perspective to the two problems: 1) evaluating the statistical significance and the stability of an experiment whose data analysis is based on a statistical test (e.g. a phase III trial), in order to avoid, if possible, further confirmatory studies; and 2) planning experiments on the basis of pilot data (e.g. phase III trials on the basis of phase II data), taking into account the variability of pilot data.

It is worth noting that these two problems have a common mathematical core, that is, the estimation of the true power of the test, namely the success probability. Usually, the power of statistical tests is viewed as a mathematical function, and it is studied analytically to compare these tests. Here, the new perspective is to estimate the true power of the tests, in other words, to estimate the success probability of experiments based on statistical tests.

The introduction, regarding clinical trials in general and reporting of some remarkable numbers related to them, opens the book. Then, the book is divided into two Parts: I) Success Probability Estimation in Planning and Analyzing Clinical Trials; and II) Success Probability Estimation for Some Widely Used Statistical Tests.

The first part presents the concepts related to success probability estimation and their usefulness ...

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