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Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence by Michael G. Pecht, Peter Sandborn, Ulrich Ermel, Bjoern Bartels

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9.4 EXECUTION STAGE

The execution stage describes the management, handling, and execution of a project (Olfert, 2008). Applied to a comprehensive strategic obsolescence management plan, this stage is used to strategically operate, perform, and lead the obsolescence management system, as described in the following sections.

9.4.1 Forecasting the Product Life Cycle

Comprehensive obsolescence management planning should start during the development and conception phase of a new product.

System designers must consider the system design life while planning the life requirements of their own products, as their own product life cycle will influence the choice of an obsolescence avoidance strategy and also the life cycle management plans, including the scheduling of redesigns and refreshes of the system.

The following essential concepts should be included in the forecasting of a product’s production and support life cycle (Tomczykowski et al., 2000):

  • A minimum acceptable life determined by the threshold for earning a profit by selling and/or supporting the product or system. At least all development and manufacturing costs should be covered.
  • The minimum acceptable operational life that is necessary to provide an operational capability that will satisfy the end user’s and mission’s needs.
  • Consideration must also be given to the possibility of extension of the actual system life expectancy. An example is the B-52 aircraft, which is now many years beyond its objective life expectancy.
  • Design ...

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