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Strategies to the Prediction, Mitigation and Management of Product Obsolescence by Michael G. Pecht, Peter Sandborn, Ulrich Ermel, Bjoern Bartels

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4.3 NON-DATABASE OBSOLESCENCE FORECASTING METHODOLOGY

The forecasting methodologies described in Sections 4.1 and 4.2 depend on historical data for the electronic part. In some cases there is no historical data available. This is often the case when the items for which obsolescence needs to be forecasted are not electronic piece parts. The forecasting approach described in this section can be applied to subsystems (sometimes referred to as COTS assemblies) as well as to electronic piece parts.

The non-database obsolescence forecasting methodology described in this section does not primarily use statistical information to estimate product lifetimes; moreover, it aims at gathering planned and forecasted facts on the product from manufacturers directly. In order to manage large amounts of gathered obsolescence-forecasting-relevant data, the modification or introduction of an enterprise-resource-planning system (ERP system) is required.

4.3.1 Forecasting Process

The actual non-database approach contains three steps, as shown in Figure 4-24.

FIGURE 4-24 Forecasting methodology Steps 1 to 3.

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At a first glance this forecasting process seems to be easily manageable, but a lot of effort is required to get proper results. The necessary steps are described next.

4.3.2 Step 1: Identify Part/Technology Group

In this first step the part has to be identified according to Section 4.1.1.1. It ...

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