Strategic Modelling and Business Dynamics: A Feedback Systems Approach

9.3. Fishery Dynamics and Regulatory Policy

To conclude this review of public sector applications we return to the topic of fisheries from Chapter One. The dynamics of fisheries are reflected in collapsing fish stocks, idle fishing fleets and impoverished fishing communities. The economic and social costs of these dynamics are enormous. It has been estimated that on a global scale, the loss of economic rents (profits) due to mismanagement of fisheries may easily amount to 50 per cent or more of the global landed value of the fish catch of some 100 billion US dollars annually.^[] If present trends continue then the industry's future is bleak. A report by a team of scientists and economists estimates that by the year 2048, fish stocks in all the world's main fishing regions will be close to extinction (Worm et al., 2006). Already one-third of fisheries have biologically collapsed and stocks could take decades to recover, even with a complete moratorium on fishing. It is a sobering thought that in less than 50 years there may be no commercial sea-fishing industry and no wild fish to eat on the table. The paradox of the fishing industry is that fishermen do not appear to act in their own best interests. They overexploit a renewable resource to the point of destruction, yet their livelihoods depend on a sustainable catch. It need not be that way.

^[] Global landings from ocean fisheries have in recent years been in the neighbourhood of 84 million metric tons. Average landed value may ...