1.2. A New Approach to Modelling

World Dynamics and Limits to Growth anticipated a new and participative approach to modelling and simulation. People's ability to manage their complex world can be improved by visualising and simulating it. Plans and alternative futures become clearer by rehearsing them (O'Brien & Dyson, 2007). Only now is this approach coming to be widely appreciated in business, political and academic circles. During the 1970s, models were still viewed as instruments for accurate prediction whose validity rested primarily on short-term predictive power, conformance with established economic theory and goodness-of-fit to historical data. Modelling for learning, of the kind presented in this book and intended to complement people's mental models, was in its infancy.

The idea of rehearsing alternative futures is fundamental to contemporary strategic modelling and scenario development. The purpose of models and simulations is to prepare organisations and individuals for alternative futures by bringing these futures to life so they are imagined more vividly than would otherwise be possible. Moreover, as you will see throughout this book, strategic models not only help people to generate alternative futures for their firms and industries, but also to challenge, shape, change and enrich their interpretation of a complex world.

An important objective for modellers (and arguably for anyone in a leadership position who has to make sense of complex business or social situations, ...

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