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Stock Trader's Almanac 2015

Book Description

The most trusted source of historical stock trading trend data for over forty years

Stock Trader's Almanac is the indispensable annual resource that helps active traders and investors profit from market cycles and seasonal trends. This practical investment tool provides a roundup of the year's data—some of the cleanest in the business—and encapsulates the historical price information, patterns, seasonalities, and trends in a calendar format. Readers get daily and monthly reminders, alerts to seasonal opportunities and dangers, plus outlines of widely-followed historical patterns and proprietary theory and strategy. The new 2015 edition includes significant revisions from the famous Best Six Months switching strategy, plus details on the renowned January Barometer and the stock market strategy aligned with the election cycle.

Analytical tools help investors and traders make investing decisions from fundamental analysis to technical analysis. Historical stock patterns have an uncanny tendency to repeat, and the proprietary data and expert analysis of Stock Trader's Almanac translates these patterns into practical information that gives market players an edge. Readers can:

  • Discover little-known market patterns and tendencies

  • Evaluate pre-Presidential election year cycles and perspectives

  • Explore the market impact of the Lame Duck year

  • Forecast market trends accurately and confidently

  • Representing a massive feat of data collection and analysis, this annual guide offers a host of market-ready strategies and delineated patterns. This invaluable data is not available from any other source, and the expert analysis is exclusive to this guide. For over forty years, thousands of market players have turned to the historical patterns found only in the Stock Trader's Almanac, the most trusted source for patterns, trends, and cycles.

    Table of Contents

    1. INTRODUCTION TO THE FORTY-EIGHTH EDITION
      1. NOTABLE EVENTS
      2. 2015 OUTLOOK
    2. 2015 STRATEGY CALENDAR
      1. JANUARY ALMANAC
        1. JANUARY'S FIRST FIVE DAYS: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
        2. THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972): ONLY SEVEN SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 64 YEARS
        3. JANUARY BAROMETER IN GRAPHIC FORM SINCE 1950
        4. PRE-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS NO LOSERS IN 76 YEARS
        5. THE RECORD SINCE 1915
      2. FEBRUARY ALMANAC
        1. 2015 OUTLOOKS FROM SOME OF THE BEST MINDS ON WALL STREET
      3. MARCH ALMANAC
        1. MARKET CHARTS OF PRE-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS
        2. THE FIFTH YEAR OF DECADES
        3. WHY A 50% GAIN IN THE DOW IS POSSIBLE FROM ITS 2014 LOW TO ITS 2015 HIGH
        4. POST-ELECTION HIGH TO MIDTERM LOW: –20.9%
      4. APRIL ALMANAC
        1. SEVENTH YEAR OF PRESIDENTIAL TERMS
        2. HOW TO TRADE BEST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGIES
        3. THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR: A USEFUL PROGNOSTICATING TOOL
      5. MAY ALMANAC
        1. DOWN JANUARYS: A REMARKABLE RECORD
        2. TOP PERFORMING MONTHS PAST 64<img xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" src="images/1_3.jpg" alt=""></img> YEARS: STANDARD &amp; POOR'S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS YEARS: STANDARD & POOR'S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
        3. “BEST SIX MONTHS”: STILL AN EYE-POPPING STRATEGY
        4. MACD-TIMING TRIPLES “BEST SIX MONTHS” RESULTS
      6. JUNE ALMANAC
        1. TOP PERFORMING NASDAQ MONTHS PAST 43<img xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg" src="images/1_3.jpg" alt=""></img> YEARS YEARS
        2. GET MORE OUT OF NASDAQ'S “BEST EIGHT MONTHS” WITH MACD TIMING
        3. TRIPLE RETURNS, LESS TRADES: BEST 6 + 4-YEAR CYCLE
      7. JULY ALMANAC
        1. FIRST MONTH OF QUARTERS IS THE MOST BULLISH
        2. 2013 DAILY DOW POINT CHANGES(DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE)
        3. DON'T SELL STOCKS ON MONDAY OR FRIDAY
        4. A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS
      8. AUGUST ALMANAC
        1. BEST INVESTMENT BOOK OF THE YEAR
        2. AURA OF THE TRIPLE WITCH—4TH QUARTER MOST BULLISH: DOWN WEEKS TRIGGER MORE WEAKNESS WEEK AFTER
        3. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOWN FRIDAY/DOWN MONDAY WARNING
      9. SEPTEMBER ALMANAC
        1. A CORRECTION FOR ALL SEASONS
        2. FIRST-TRADING-DAY-OF-THE-MONTH PHENOMENON: DOW GAINS MORE ONE DAY THAN ALL OTHER DAYS
        3. MARKET BEHAVIOR THREE DAYS BEFORE AND THREE DAYS AFTER HOLIDAYS
      10. OCTOBER ALMANAC
        1. MARKET GAINS MORE ON SUPER-8 DAYS EACH MONTH THAN ON ALL 13 REMAINING DAYS COMBINED
        2. SECTOR SEASONALITY: SELECTED PERCENTAGE PLAYS
        3. SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY STRATEGY CALENDAR*
        4. SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY STRATEGY CALENDAR*
      11. NOVEMBER ALMANAC
        1. FOURTH QUARTER MARKET MAGIC
        2. TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
        3. MOST OF THE SO-CALLED “JANUARY EFFECT” TAKES PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF DECEMBER
      12. DECEMBER ALMANAC
        1. JANUARY EFFECT NOW STARTS IN MID-DECEMBER
        2. WALL STREET'S ONLY “FREE LUNCH” SERVED BEFORE CHRISTMAS
        3. IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL, BEARS MAY COME TO BROAD AND WALL
        4. YEAR'S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS
    3. DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK
      1.     CONTENTS
      2. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      3. <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">RECENT</u> DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015 DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      4. S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      5. <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">RECENT</u> S&amp;P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015 S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      6. NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      7. <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">RECENT</u> NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015 NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      8. RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      9. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2015
      10. DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON
      11. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 181-YEAR SAGA CONTINUES
      12. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900
      13. STANDARD & POOR'S 500 BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971
      14. JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      15. FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      16. MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      17. APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      18. MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      19. JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      20. JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      21. AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      22. SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      23. OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      24. NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      25. DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      26. A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET
      27. THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS
      28. TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK
      29. NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK
      30. S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952
      31. NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971
      32. MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS
      33. MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS
      34. NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR'S BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN
      35. NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ'S EIGHT-MONTH RUN
      36. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1901
      37. S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930
      38. NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971
      39. RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
      40. RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
      41. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
      42. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950
      43. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
      44. STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
      45. STANDARD & POOR'S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
      46. NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971
      47. NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971
      48. RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
      49. RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
      50. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
      51. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
      52. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">BEST</u> DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      53. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">WORST</u> DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      54. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">BEST</u> WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      55. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">WORST</u> WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      56. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">BEST</u> MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      57. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">WORST</u> MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      58. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">BEST</u> QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      59. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">WORST</u> QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      60. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">BEST</u> YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      61. 10 <u xmlns="http://www.w3.org/1999/xhtml" xmlns:epub="http://www.idpf.org/2007/ops" xmlns:m="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML" xmlns:svg="http://www.w3.org/2000/svg">WORST</u> YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
      62. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1901
      63. S&P 500 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1930
      64. NASDAQ, RUSSELL 1000 & 2000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN CHARTS SINCE 1971
    4. STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION
      1.     CONTENTS
      2. PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2015
      3. ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
      4. ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
      5. SHORT-TERM TRANSACTIONS
      6. LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS
      7. INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2015
      8. BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2015
      9. WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2015 (FIRST HALF)
      10. WEEKLY PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2015 (SECOND HALF)
      11. WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2015 (FIRST HALF)
      12. WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2015 (SECOND HALF)
      13. MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2015
      14. PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2015
      15. IF YOU DON'T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES, SOMEONE ELSE WILL
        1. PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS
      16. INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNT (IRA): MOST AWESOME MASS INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED
      17. G. M. LOEB'S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL
      18. G. M. LOEB'S INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST
    5. END USER LICENSE AGREEMENT