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Stock Trader's Almanac 2013

Book Description

A time-tested guide to stock trading market cycles

Published every year since 1968, the Stock Trader's Almanac is a practical investment tool with a wealth of information organized in calendar format. Everyone from well-known money managers to savvy traders and investors relies upon this annual resource for its in-depth analyses and insights. The Stock Trader's Almanac 2013 contains essential historical price information on the stock market, provides monthly and daily reminders, and highlights seasonal trading opportunities and dangers.

The Stock Trader's Almanac 2013 is packed with timely insights and targeted analysis to help you navigate turbulent markets and beat the odds in the year ahead. This trusted guide combines over a century's worth of data, statistics, and trends along with vital analysis you won't get anywhere else.

  • Alerts you to little-known market patterns and tendencies to help forecast market trends with accuracy and confidence

  • An indispensable annual resource, trusted for over 40 years by traders and investors

  • The data in the Almanac is some of the best in the business

For its wealth of information and the authority of its sources, the Stock Trader's Almanac stands alone as the guide to intelligent investing.

Table of Contents

  1. Cover
  2. Title Page
  3. Copyright
  4. Dedication
  5. INTRODUCTION TO THE FORTY-SIXTH EDITION
    1. NOTABLE EVENTS
    2. 2013 OUTLOOK
  6. 2013 STRATEGY CALENDAR
    1. JANUARY ALMANAC
      1. January Vital Statistics
      2. DECEMBER 2012/JANUARY 2013
      3. JANUARY’S FIRST FIVE DAYS: AN EARLY WARNING SYSTEM
      4. THE FIRST-FIVE-DAYS-IN-JANUARY INDICATOR
        1. JANUARY
      5. THE INCREDIBLE JANUARY BAROMETER (DEVISED 1972): ONLY Seven SIGNIFICANT ERRORS IN 62 YEARS
      6. AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR
        1. JANUARY
      7. JANUARY BAROMETER IN GRAPHIC FORM SINCE 1950
        1. JANUARY
    2. FEBRUARY ALMANAC
      1. February Vital Statistics
        1. JANUARY/FEBRUARY
      2. HOT JANUARY INDUSTRIES BEAT S&P NEXT 11 MONTHS
      3. AS JANUARY GOES, SO GOES THE YEAR FOR TOP-PERFORMING INDUSTRIES
        1. FEBRUARY
      4. MARKET BEHAVIOR AFTER SITTING PRESIDENT WINS AND LOSSES
      5. POST-ELECTION MARKETS WHEN SITTING PRESIDENT WINS REELECTION
        1. FEBRUARY
      6. THE THIRD YEAR OF DECADES
        1. FEBRUARY
    3. MARCH ALMANAC
      1. March Vital Statistics
        1. FEBRUARY/MARCH
      2. MARKET CHARTS OF POST-PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION YEARS
        1. MARCH
      3. POST-ELECTION YEAR PERFORMANCE BY PARTY
      4. MARKET ACTION UNDER REPUBLICANS & DEMOCRATS SINCE 1953
        1. MARCH
      5. POST-ELECTION YEARS: PAYING THE PIPER
      6. THE RECORD SINCE 1913
        1. MARCH
      7. HOW TO TRADE BEST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGIES
      8. TRADABLE BEST AND WORST MONTHS SWITCHING STRATEGY FUNDS
        1. Become an Almanac Investor
        2. MARCH
    4. APRIL ALMANAC
      1. April Vital Statistics
        1. APRIL
      2. THE DECEMBER LOW INDICATOR: A USEFUL PROGNOSTICATING TOOL
      3. YEARS DOW FELL BELOW DECEMBER LOW IN FIRST QUARTER
        1. APRIL
      4. DOWN JANUARYS: A REMARKABLE RECORD
      5. FROM DOWN JANUARY S&P CLOSES TO LOW NEXT 11 MONTHS
        1. APRIL
      6. TOP PERFORMING MONTHS PAST 62 1/3 YEARS: STANDARD & POOR’S 500 AND DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
      7. MONTHLY % CHANGES (JANUARY 1950 TO APRIL 2012)
        1. APRIL
    5. MAY ALMANAC
      1. May Vital Statistics
        1. APRIL/MAY
      2. “BEST SIX MONTHS”: STILL AN EYE-POPPING STRATEGY
      3. SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY
        1. MAY
      4. MACD-TIMING TRIPLES “BEST SIX MONTHS” RESULTS
      5. SIX-MONTH SWITCHING STRATEGY+TIMING
        1. MAY
      6. MARKET FARES BETTER UNDER DEMOCRATS DOLLAR HOLDS UP UNDER REPUBLICANS
      7. THE STOCK MARKET UNDER REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS
      8. DECLINE OF THE DOLLAR UNDER REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS
        1. MAY
    6. JUNE ALMANAC
      1. June Vital Statistics
        1. MAY/JUNE
      2. TOP PERFORMING NASDAQ MONTHS PAST 41 1/3 YEARS
      3. MONTHLY % CHANGES (JANUARY 1971 TO APRIL 2011)
        1. JUNE
      4. GET MORE OUT OF NASDAQ’S “BEST EIGHT MONTHS” WITH MACD TIMING
      5. BEST EIGHT MONTHS STRATEGY + TIMING
        1. JUNE
      6. TRIPLE RETURNS, FEWER TRADES: BEST 6 + 4-YEAR CYCLE
      7. FOUR TRADES EVERY FOUR YEARS
      8. BEST SIX MONTHS+TIMING+4-YEAR CYCLE STRATEGY
        1. JUNE
      9. FIRST MONTH OF QUARTERS IS THE MOST BULLISH
      10. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS, S&P 500, AND NASDAQ AVERAGE MONTHLY % CHANGES BY QUARTER
        1. JUNE
    7. JULY ALMANAC
      1. July Vital Statistics
        1. JULY
      2. 2011 DAILY DOW POINT CHANGES (DOW JONES INDUSTRIAL AVERAGE)
        1. JULY
      3. DON’T SELL STOCKS ON Monday or FRIDAY
      4. ANNUAL DOW POINT CHANGES FOR DAYS OF THE WEEK SINCE 1953
        1. JULY
      5. A RALLY FOR ALL SEASONS
      6. SEASONAL GAINS IN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
        1. JULY
    8. AUGUST ALMANAC
      1. August Vital Statistics
        1. JULY/AUGUST
      2. REPUBLICAN CONGRESS & DEMOCRATIC PRESIDENT BEST FOR THE MARKET
      3. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS AVERAGE ANNUAL % CHANGE SINCE 1949–2011
        1. AUGUST
      4. AURA OF THE TRIPLE WITCH—4th QUARTER most BULLISH: DOWN WEEKS TRIGGER MORE WEAKNESS WEEK AFTER
      5. TRIPLE WITCHING WEEK AND WEEK AFTER DOW POINT CHANGES
        1. AUGUST
      6. TAKE ADVANTAGE OF DOWN FRIDAY/ DOWN MONDAY WARNING
      7. DOWN FRIDAY/DOWN MONDAYS
      8. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS (NOVEMBER 2010–MAY 18, 2012)
        1. AUGUST
    9. SEPTEMBER ALMANAC
      1. September Vital Statistics
        1. AUGUST/SEPTEMBER
      2. A CORRECTION FOR ALL SEASONS
      3. SEASONAL CORRECTIONS IN DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
        1. SEPTEMBER
      4. FIRST-TRADING-DAY-OF-THE-MONTH PHENOMENON: DOW GAINS MORE ONE DAY THAN ALL OTHER DAYS
      5. DOW POINTS GAINED FIRST DAY OF MONTH SEPTEMBER 1997 TO MAY 18, 2012
      6. SUMMARY FIRST DAYS VS. OTHER DAYS OF MONTH
        1. SEPTEMBER
      7. MARKET BEHAVIOR THREE DAYS BEFORE AND THREE DAYS AFTER HOLIDAYS
      8. HOLIDAYS: 3 DAYS BEFORE, 3 DAYS AFTER (Average % change 1980 to April 2012)
        1. SEPTEMBER
      9. MARKET GAINS MORE ON SUPER-8 DAYS each MONTH THAN ON ALL 13 REMAINING DAYS COMBINED
      10. SUPER-8 DAYS* DOW % CHANGES VS. REST OF MONTH
        1. SEPTEMBER
    10. OCTOBER ALMANAC
      1. October Vital Statistics
        1. SEPTEMBER/OCTOBER
      2. SECTOR SEASONALITY: SELECTED PERCENTAGE PLAYS
      3. SECTOR INDEX SEASONALITY TABLE
        1. OCTOBER
      4. Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar*
        1. OCTOBER
      5. Sector Index Seasonality Strategy Calendar*
        1. OCTOBER
    11. NOVEMBER ALMANAC
      1. November Vital Statistics
        1. OCTOBER/NOVEMBER
      2. FOURTH QUARTER MARKET MAGIC
      3. QUARTERLY % CHANGES
        1. NOVEMBER
      4. TRADING THE THANKSGIVING MARKET
      5. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BEFORE AND AFTER THANKSGIVING
        1. NOVEMBER
      6. MOST OF THE SO-CALLED “JANUARY EFFECT” TAKES PLACE IN THE LAST HALF OF DECEMBER
      7. 25-YEAR AVERAGE RATES OF RETURN (DEC 1987 TO FEB 2012)
        1. NOVEMBER
    12. DECEMBER ALMANAC
      1. December Vital Statistics
        1. NOVEMBER/DECEMBER
      2. JANUARY EFFECT NOW STARTS IN MID-DECEMBER
      3. RUSSELL 2000/RUSSELL 1000 ONE-YEAR SEASONAL PATTERN
      4. RUSSELL 2000/RUSSELL 1000 (1979 to April 2012)
        1. DECEMBER
      5. WALL STREET’S ONLY “FREE LUNCH” SERVED BEFORE CHRISTMAS
      6. BARGAIN STOCKS VS. THE MARKET*
        1. DECEMBER
      7. IF SANTA CLAUS SHOULD FAIL TO CALL, BEARS MAY COME TO BROAD AND WALL
      8. DAILY % CHANGE IN S&P 500 AT YEAR END
        1. DECEMBER
      9. BEST INVESTMENT BOOK OF THE YEAR: What’s Behind the Numbers
      10. YEAR’S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS
        1. DECEMBER
      11. YEAR’S TOP INVESTMENT BOOKS
        1. DECEMBER/JANUARY 2014
      12. 2014 STRATEGY CALENDAR
      13. 2014 STRATEGY CALENDAR
  7. DIRECTORY OF TRADING PATTERNS AND DATABANK
    1. CONTENTS
    2. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    3. RECENT DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    4. S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    5. RECENT S&P 500 MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    6. NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    7. RECENT NASDAQ COMPOSITE MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    8. RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    9. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MARKET PROBABILITY CALENDAR 2013
    10. DECENNIAL CYCLE: A MARKET PHENOMENON
    11. THE 10-YEAR STOCK MARKET CYCLE
    12. PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION/STOCK MARKET CYCLE: THE 179-YEAR SAGA CONTINUES
    13. STOCK MARKET ACTION SINCE 1833
    14. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL and BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900
    15. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS BULL AND BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1900
    16. STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL & BEAR MARKETS SINCE 1929 NASDAQ COMPOSITE SINCE 1971
    17. STANDARD & POOR’S 500 BULL AND BEAR MARKETS
    18. NASDAQ COMPOSITE BULL AND BEAR MARKETS
    19. JANUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    20. FEBRUARY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    21. MARCH DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    22. APRIL DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    23. MAY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    24. JUNE DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    25. JULY DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    26. AUGUST DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    27. SEPTEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    28. OCTOBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    29. NOVEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    30. DECEMBER DAILY POINT CHANGES DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS
    31. A TYPICAL DAY IN THE MARKET
    32. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH HALF-HOUR OF THE DAY (January 1987 to April 27, 2012)
    33. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH HOUR OF THE DAY (November 1963 to June 1985)
    34. THROUGH THE WEEK ON A HALF-HOURLY BASIS
    35. TUESDAY MOST PROFITABLE DAY OF WEEK
    36. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (June 1952 to December 1989)
    37. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (January 1990 to May 4, 2012)
    38. NASDAQ STRONGEST LAST 3 DAYS OF WEEK
    39. NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (1971 to 1989)
    40. NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE WEEK (1990 to May 4, 2012)
    41. S&P DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1952
    42. PERCENTAGE OF TIMES MARKET CLOSED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY
    43. NASDAQ DAILY PERFORMANCE EACH YEAR SINCE 1971
    44. PERCENTAGE OF TIMES NASDAQ CLOSED HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS DAY
    45. MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO S&P STOCKS
    46. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1953 to December 1981)
    47. MARKET % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1982 to December 2011)
    48. MONTHLY CASH INFLOWS INTO NASDAQ STOCKS
    49. NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1971 to December 1981)
    50. NASDAQ % PERFORMANCE EACH DAY OF THE MONTH (January 1982 to December 2011)
    51. NOVEMBER, DECEMBER, AND JANUARY: YEAR’S BEST THREE-MONTH SPAN
    52. S&P 500 MONTHLY % PERFORMANCE January 1950 to April 2012
    53. NOVEMBER THROUGH JUNE: NASDAQ’S EIGHT-MONTH RUN
    54. NASDAQ MONTHLY PERFORMANCE January 1971 to April 2012
    55. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1901
    56. S&P 500 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1930
    57. NASDAQ ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1971
    58. RUSSELL 1000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
    59. RUSSELL 2000 ANNUAL HIGHS, LOWS, & CLOSES SINCE 1979
    60. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGE SINCE 1950
    61. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY POINT CHANGES SINCE 1950
    62. DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
    63. STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1950
    64. STANDARD & POOR’S 500 MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1950
    65. NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1971
    66. NASDAQ COMPOSITE MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1971
    67. RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
    68. RUSSELL 1000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
    69. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY PERCENT CHANGES SINCE 1979
    70. RUSSELL 2000 INDEX MONTHLY CLOSING PRICES SINCE 1979
  8. STRATEGY PLANNING AND RECORD SECTION
    1. 10 BEST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    2. 10 WORST DAYS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    3. 10 BEST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    4. 10 WORST WEEKS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    5. 10 BEST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    6. 10 WORST MONTHS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    7. 10 BEST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    8. 10 WORST QUARTERS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    9. 10 BEST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    10. 10 WORST YEARS BY PERCENT AND POINT
    11. CONTENTS
    12. PORTFOLIO AT START OF 2013
    13. ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
    14. ADDITIONAL PURCHASES
    15. SHORT-TERM TRANSACTIONS
    16. LONG-TERM TRANSACTIONS
    17. INTEREST/DIVIDENDS RECEIVED DURING 2013
    18. BROKERAGE ACCOUNT DATA 2013
    19. PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2013 (FIRST HALF)
    20. PORTFOLIO PRICE RECORD 2013 (SECOND HALF)
    21. WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2013 (FIRST HALF)
    22. WEEKLY INDICATOR DATA 2013 (SECOND HALF)
    23. MONTHLY INDICATOR DATA 2013
    24. INSTRUCTIONS:
    25. PORTFOLIO AT END OF 2013
    26. IF YOU DON’T PROFIT FROM YOUR INVESTMENT MISTAKES, SOMEONE ELSE WILL
    27. PERFORMANCE RECORD OF RECOMMENDATIONS
    28. INDIVIDUAL RETIREMENT ACCOUNTS: MOST AWESOME INVESTMENT INCENTIVE EVER DEVISED
    29. TOP 300 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (As of 4/30/2012)
    30. TOP 300 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (As of 4/30/2012)
    31. TOP 300 EXCHANGE TRADED FUNDS (As of 4/30/2012)
    32. G. M. LOEB’S “BATTLE PLAN” FOR INVESTMENT SURVIVAL
    33. G. M. LOEB’S INVESTMENT SURVIVAL CHECKLIST