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Statistics for Business by Derek Waller

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6

Theory and Methods ofStatistical Sampling

The Sampling Experiment wasBadly Designed!

A well-designed sample survey can give pretty accurate predictions of the requirements, desires, or needs of a population. However, the accuracy of the survey lies in the phrase “well-designed”. A classic illustration of sampling gone wrong was in 1948 during the presidential election campaign when the two candidates were Harry Truman, the Democratic incumbent and Governor Dewey of New York, the Republican candidate. The Chicago Tribune was “so sure” of the outcome that the headlines in their morning daily paper of 3 November 1948 as illustrated in Figure 6.1, announced, “Dewey defeats Truman”. In fact Harry Truman won by a narrow but decisive victory of 49.5% ...

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