O'Reilly logo

Statistical Models and Causal Inference by Jasjeet S. Sekhon, David Collier, David A. Freedman

Stay ahead with the world's most comprehensive technology and business learning platform.

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required

8What is the Chance of an Earthquake?

With Philip B. Stark

        ABSTRACT. Making sense of earthquake forecasts is surprisingly difficult. In part, this is because the forecasts are based on a complicated mixture of geological maps, rules of thumb, expert opinion, physical models, stochastic models, and numerical simulations, as well as geodetic, seismic, and paleoseismic data. Even the concept of probability is hard to define in this context. For instance, the U.S. Geological Survey developed a probability model according to which the chance of an earthquake of magnitude 6.7 or greater before the year 2030 in the San Francisco Bay Area is 0.7 ± 0.1. How is that to be understood? Standard interpretations of probability cannot be applied. Despite ...

With Safari, you learn the way you learn best. Get unlimited access to videos, live online training, learning paths, books, interactive tutorials, and more.

Start Free Trial

No credit card required