Solar Energy Forecasting and Resource Assessment

Chapter 8

Overview of Solar-Forecasting Methods and a Metric for Accuracy Evaluation

Carlos F.M. Coimbra and Jan Kleissl,    Center for Renewable Resources and Integration, Department of Mechanical and Aerospace Engineering, University of California, San Diego

Ricardo Marquez,    SolAspect

Chapter Outline

8.1. Classification of Solar-Forecasting Methods

8.2. Deterministic and Stochastic Forecasting Approaches

8.2.1. A Critical Appraisal of Physically-Based Forecasting Approaches

8.2.2. Satellite Forecasts

8.2.3. Sky-Imager Forecasts

8.2.4. Data Inputs to Stochastic-Learning Approaches

8.2.5. Section Summary

8.3. Metrics for Evaluation of Solar-Forecasting Models

8.3.1. Solar Resource Variability

8.3.2. Conventional Metrics for Model Evaluation ...